Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System point to a daytime maximum near 21–22 °C in Istanbul on May 18, keeping the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes tightly matched in trader pricing. Mid-May climatology for the region, drawn from Turkish State Meteorological Service records, places average highs at 20–22 °C, so current model consensus sits squarely within historical norms rather than signaling an outlier. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus, and subtle steering of a weak high-pressure ridge over the Marmara Sea create the narrow spread between these two leading bins. Forecasters will release updated model runs overnight, which could shift the implied probabilities if any late adjustment to wind direction or boundary-layer moisture appears.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
21°C 34%
22°C 30%
20°C 17%
23°C or higher 13.5%
MỚI
MỚI
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
17%
21°C
34%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
14%
21°C 34%
22°C 30%
20°C 17%
23°C or higher 13.5%
MỚI
MỚI
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$446 KL.
<1%
14°C
$774 KL.
<1%
15°C
$1,119 KL.
<1%
16°C
$795 KL.
<1%
17°C
$1,699 KL.
<1%
18°C
$1,202 KL.
1%
19°C
$765 KL.
5%
20°C
$405 KL.
17%
21°C
$467 KL.
34%
22°C
$311 KL.
30%
23°C or higher
$853 KL.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System point to a daytime maximum near 21–22 °C in Istanbul on May 18, keeping the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes tightly matched in trader pricing. Mid-May climatology for the region, drawn from Turkish State Meteorological Service records, places average highs at 20–22 °C, so current model consensus sits squarely within historical norms rather than signaling an outlier. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus, and subtle steering of a weak high-pressure ridge over the Marmara Sea create the narrow spread between these two leading bins. Forecasters will release updated model runs overnight, which could shift the implied probabilities if any late adjustment to wind direction or boundary-layer moisture appears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Khối lượng
$8,724Ngày kết thúc
May 18, 2026Thị trường mở
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System point to a daytime maximum near 21–22 °C in Istanbul on May 18, keeping the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes tightly matched in trader pricing. Mid-May climatology for the region, drawn from Turkish State Meteorological Service records, places average highs at 20–22 °C, so current model consensus sits squarely within historical norms rather than signaling an outlier. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus, and subtle steering of a weak high-pressure ridge over the Marmara Sea create the narrow spread between these two leading bins. Forecasters will release updated model runs overnight, which could shift the implied probabilities if any late adjustment to wind direction or boundary-layer moisture appears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$8,724Ngày kết thúc
May 18, 2026Thị trường mở
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System point to a daytime maximum near 21–22 °C in Istanbul on May 18, keeping the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes tightly matched in trader pricing. Mid-May climatology for the region, drawn from Turkish State Meteorological Service records, places average highs at 20–22 °C, so current model consensus sits squarely within historical norms rather than signaling an outlier. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus, and subtle steering of a weak high-pressure ridge over the Marmara Sea create the narrow spread between these two leading bins. Forecasters will release updated model runs overnight, which could shift the implied probabilities if any late adjustment to wind direction or boundary-layer moisture appears.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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