The market's near-certain positioning at 36°C stems from Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasts and consensus model runs projecting a daytime maximum of exactly that value for Karachi on May 16, driven by typical pre-monsoon continental heating balanced by afternoon sea-breeze moderation from the Arabian Sea. This aligns closely with mid-May climatology, where average highs hover around 34–35°C, and recent observations show no sign of the intense dry winds that produced earlier spikes above 40°C. Traders view the 37°C threshold as improbable absent a sharp forecast revision, which remains unlikely given stable atmospheric conditions and high model agreement. A realistic shift could occur only if unexpected suppression of the sea breeze allows stronger onshore advection of hot air, though current guidance assigns negligible odds to that outcome.