Forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate Madrid’s August 28 maximum will likely fall in the mid-20s °C amid a cooling trend after earlier August heat, with clear to partly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds, and minimal precipitation expected. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from variable low-level moisture, boundary-layer mixing, and minor timing shifts in any weak Atlantic front, producing outcome uncertainty across the 24–27 °C range. Historical late-August normals near 30–31 °C provide context, yet the current pattern favors lower values. Updated high-resolution runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine daytime heating potential ahead of market resolution.