Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula on May 17, which is suppressing significant daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures near 22–23°C at Madrid-Barajas Airport. This setup features mostly clear skies and light northerly winds, limiting surface warming despite the late-spring solar angle. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with these model runs, which show low variability across recent updates and little potential for stronger advection or instability. Historical May averages around 22°C provide additional context, though short-term fluctuations in ridge position could still shift the final reading before resolution.