Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 17?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 17?
26°C or higher 99%
25°C 17%
24°C 5%
21°C <1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
17%
26°C or higher
78%
26°C or higher 99%
25°C 17%
24°C 5%
21°C <1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
$10 KL.
<1%
17°C
$5 KL.
<1%
18°C
$5 KL.
<1%
19°C
$5 KL.
<1%
20°C
$65 KL.
1%
21°C
$10 KL.
1%
22°C
$10 KL.
1%
23°C
$10 KL.
1%
24°C
$29 KL.
5%
25°C
$6 KL.
17%
26°C or higher
$3 KL.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Khối lượng
$158Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$158Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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