Recent European model consensus, particularly from the ECMWF ensemble, points to a daily maximum near 20–21°C in Milan on May 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light variable winds and limited cloud cover. This setup supports modest daytime heating consistent with the May climatological average high of roughly 22°C, yet small differences in boundary-layer moisture and insolation timing create tight spreads across guidance runs. Trader sentiment has therefore clustered on the 19–22°C outcomes, as further model updates or local observations tomorrow could readily shift the peak by 1–2°C either direction before resolution at the Malpensa station.