Current forecast models from European meteorological agencies place Milan's expected high for May 17 near 21–22 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities of 42.5 % for 22 °C and 37.5 % for 21 °C. A broad high-pressure ridge over northern Italy is expected to deliver light northerly winds and limited cloud cover, allowing modest afternoon solar heating that historically pushes daily maxima in this range during mid-May. Ensemble spreads in the latest ECMWF and ICON runs show a 1–2 °C uncertainty window tied to small variations in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any residual low-level stratus, keeping lower-probability outcomes such as 20 °C or 23 °C priced under 10 %. Traders are monitoring the 06 UTC and 12 UTC model updates scheduled for later today, which will refine the exact peak before the official Milan measurement window closes.