Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and reciprocal blockades since late February have throttled commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily transits in early May, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Heightened risks from attacks, mine threats, and selective Iranian routing approvals have kept most tankers and cargo ships loitering or rerouted, supporting trader consensus around the 20-39 outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Modest increases in permitted eastbound sailings mid-month, including a handful of VLCCs and bulk carriers, have lifted some weekly counts into the low 30s without restoring pre-war volumes. Key upcoming catalysts include any de-escalation in naval skirmishes or expanded US escort operations that could shift the range toward 40-59.