Traders assign a 97 percent probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show only incremental steps rather than full cessation. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding established a temporary status quo on Iran's nuclear program and launched follow-on talks on enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and IAEA access, yet left core questions unresolved within the sixty-day window. Iran continues operating enrichment facilities amid longstanding IAEA safeguards concerns and has signaled willingness only to discuss calibrated reductions or down-blending, not complete termination. This positioning aligns with Iran's negotiating record and ongoing regional tensions. A rapid breakthrough in bilateral talks or an unexpected concession tied to sanctions relief could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
3% khả năng
$62,705 KL.
$62,705 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
3% khả năng
$62,705 KL.
$62,705 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 97 percent probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show only incremental steps rather than full cessation. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding established a temporary status quo on Iran's nuclear program and launched follow-on talks on enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and IAEA access, yet left core questions unresolved within the sixty-day window. Iran continues operating enrichment facilities amid longstanding IAEA safeguards concerns and has signaled willingness only to discuss calibrated reductions or down-blending, not complete termination. This positioning aligns with Iran's negotiating record and ongoing regional tensions. A rapid breakthrough in bilateral talks or an unexpected concession tied to sanctions relief could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$62,705Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 97 percent probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show only incremental steps rather than full cessation. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding established a temporary status quo on Iran's nuclear program and launched follow-on talks on enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and IAEA access, yet left core questions unresolved within the sixty-day window. Iran continues operating enrichment facilities amid longstanding IAEA safeguards concerns and has signaled willingness only to discuss calibrated reductions or down-blending, not complete termination. This positioning aligns with Iran's negotiating record and ongoing regional tensions. A rapid breakthrough in bilateral talks or an unexpected concession tied to sanctions relief could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$62,705Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97 percent probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show only incremental steps rather than full cessation. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding established a temporary status quo on Iran's nuclear program and launched follow-on talks on enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and IAEA access, yet left core questions unresolved within the sixty-day window. Iran continues operating enrichment facilities amid longstanding IAEA safeguards concerns and has signaled willingness only to discuss calibrated reductions or down-blending, not complete termination. This positioning aligns with Iran's negotiating record and ongoing regional tensions. A rapid breakthrough in bilateral talks or an unexpected concession tied to sanctions relief could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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