This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by large-scale strikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026, Tehran's FIR airspace remains closed to most civilian overflights due to heightened military activity, missile launches, and misidentification risks, as evidenced by persistent international NOTAMs from EASA, FAA, and European authorities valid into June. Iranian retaliation via drones and missiles prompted UAE partial airspace restrictions through May 11 after interceptions near Al Dhafra base. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's confirmed covert UAE visit yesterday advanced defense ties, including potential Iron Dome shipments, signaling Gulf-Israel alignment against escalation. Traders monitor for de-escalation signals or fresh strikes that could trigger full closure NOTAMs, with no confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by large-scale strikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026, Tehran's FIR airspace remains closed to most civilian overflights due to heightened military activity, missile launches, and misidentification risks, as evidenced by persistent international NOTAMs from EASA, FAA, and European authorities valid into June. Iranian retaliation via drones and missiles prompted UAE partial airspace restrictions through May 11 after interceptions near Al Dhafra base. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's confirmed covert UAE visit yesterday advanced defense ties, including potential Iron Dome shipments, signaling Gulf-Israel alignment against escalation. Traders monitor for de-escalation signals or fresh strikes that could trigger full closure NOTAMs, with no confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
May 11 2026
Iranian aviation authorities issue new notices on airspace restrictions amid security alerts
May 31 jumps to 41%9%
New official notices about airspace restrictions amid heightened security alerts increased market expectations of a possible major closure.
May 10 2026
Airlines continue cancellations and rerouting amid ongoing regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 38%8%
Ongoing airline disruptions and cautious official statements kept the market's probability moderate, reflecting uncertainty about a potential major closure.
May 8 2026
Iran resumes limited airspace restrictions after missile strikes on UAE
May 31 drops to 27%7%
Following missile strikes, Iran reinstated some airspace restrictions, but these were limited and did not constitute a major closure, causing mixed market reactions.
May 8 2026
No official Iranian government or civil aviation announcements of a major airspace closure;
May 8 dips to 2%1%
commercial flights continued operating normally or with limited restrictions not meeting the "major closure" criteria; market
May 7 2026
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian
May 7 drops to 0%7%
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian government order closing the airspace, leading traders to push the Yes
May 7 2026
Minor temporary uptick to 7% possibly due to short-term rumors or geopolitical concerns, but no verifiable news of a major closure emerged;
May 8 rises to 7%4%
market quickly corrected downward
May 7 2026
Partial airspace closures near Strait of Hormuz reported, no broad closure
May 31 jumps to 40%13%
Reports of partial closures for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about escalation, pushing
May 6 2026
Market reassesses after Iranian authorities clarify limited airspace restrictions
May 31 drops to 27%11%
Clarifications from Iranian aviation authorities indicated that closures were targeted and temporary, not a full major closure, leading to a market correction downward.
May 5 2026
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to
May 7 jumps to 7%6%
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to bid up the Yes
May 5 2026
Airlines including Air India and IndiGo reroute flights due to Iran airspace closure
May 31 plunges to 38%24%
Major Indian carriers announced rerouting and cancellations following Iran's airspace closure announcements, confirming operational disruptions but with some uncertainty about the closure's scope, causing
May 4 2026
Iran issues a temporary restriction on civilian flights within the Tehran FIR, allowing only pre‑authorized international traffic;
May 15 dips to 4%4%
the notice is brief and does not affect the majority of commercial airports
May 4 2026
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements
May 8 plunges to 10%17%
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements materialized; absence of qualifying closure news caused
May 4 2026
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major
May 31 surges to 59%18%
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major airports (IKA, MHD) grounded
May 4 2026
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice,
May 31 dips to 55%4%
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice, pushing the market back up
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting UAE airspace restrictions
May 31 surges to 62%22%
Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE led to renewed UAE airspace restrictions and increased regional tensions, significantly raising the probability of Iran imposing a major airspace closure.
May 2 2026
Reports emerge of increased military activity near Iranian airspace
May 31 drops to 31%11%
News of military drills and missile tests near Iranian airspace led to partial airspace restrictions but no major closure, causing a market dip as the risk of a full closure appeared lower.
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced temporary restrictions on airspace access affecting commercial flights, signaling heightened security concerns and raising market expectations of a possible broader closure.
May 1 2026
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate
May 8 dips to 21%3%
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate market optimism (around 24%) that a closure might occur
Feb 28 2026
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad
May 15 drops to 14%6%
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad suspension
Feb 28 2026
Middle East airspace shuts after US‑Israel strike on Iran;
May 15 drops to 27%5%
Iran closes its airspace to civilian traffic, prompting fears of a broad closure that pushed the market up
Feb 28 2026
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes
May 15 dips to 11%3%
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes and not a nationwide suspension
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by large-scale strikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026, Tehran's FIR airspace remains closed to most civilian overflights due to heightened military activity, missile launches, and misidentification risks, as evidenced by persistent international NOTAMs from EASA, FAA, and European authorities valid into June. Iranian retaliation via drones and missiles prompted UAE partial airspace restrictions through May 11 after interceptions near Al Dhafra base. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's confirmed covert UAE visit yesterday advanced defense ties, including potential Iron Dome shipments, signaling Gulf-Israel alignment against escalation. Traders monitor for de-escalation signals or fresh strikes that could trigger full closure NOTAMs, with no confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by large-scale strikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026, Tehran's FIR airspace remains closed to most civilian overflights due to heightened military activity, missile launches, and misidentification risks, as evidenced by persistent international NOTAMs from EASA, FAA, and European authorities valid into June. Iranian retaliation via drones and missiles prompted UAE partial airspace restrictions through May 11 after interceptions near Al Dhafra base. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's confirmed covert UAE visit yesterday advanced defense ties, including potential Iron Dome shipments, signaling Gulf-Israel alignment against escalation. Traders monitor for de-escalation signals or fresh strikes that could trigger full closure NOTAMs, with no confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
May 11 2026
Iranian aviation authorities issue new notices on airspace restrictions amid security alerts
May 31 jumps to 41%9%
New official notices about airspace restrictions amid heightened security alerts increased market expectations of a possible major closure.
May 10 2026
Airlines continue cancellations and rerouting amid ongoing regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 38%8%
Ongoing airline disruptions and cautious official statements kept the market's probability moderate, reflecting uncertainty about a potential major closure.
May 8 2026
Iran resumes limited airspace restrictions after missile strikes on UAE
May 31 drops to 27%7%
Following missile strikes, Iran reinstated some airspace restrictions, but these were limited and did not constitute a major closure, causing mixed market reactions.
May 8 2026
No official Iranian government or civil aviation announcements of a major airspace closure;
May 8 dips to 2%1%
commercial flights continued operating normally or with limited restrictions not meeting the "major closure" criteria; market
May 7 2026
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian
May 7 drops to 0%7%
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian government order closing the airspace, leading traders to push the Yes
May 7 2026
Minor temporary uptick to 7% possibly due to short-term rumors or geopolitical concerns, but no verifiable news of a major closure emerged;
May 8 rises to 7%4%
market quickly corrected downward
May 7 2026
Partial airspace closures near Strait of Hormuz reported, no broad closure
May 31 jumps to 40%13%
Reports of partial closures for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about escalation, pushing
May 6 2026
Market reassesses after Iranian authorities clarify limited airspace restrictions
May 31 drops to 27%11%
Clarifications from Iranian aviation authorities indicated that closures were targeted and temporary, not a full major closure, leading to a market correction downward.
May 5 2026
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to
May 7 jumps to 7%6%
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to bid up the Yes
May 5 2026
Airlines including Air India and IndiGo reroute flights due to Iran airspace closure
May 31 plunges to 38%24%
Major Indian carriers announced rerouting and cancellations following Iran's airspace closure announcements, confirming operational disruptions but with some uncertainty about the closure's scope, causing
May 4 2026
Iran issues a temporary restriction on civilian flights within the Tehran FIR, allowing only pre‑authorized international traffic;
May 15 dips to 4%4%
the notice is brief and does not affect the majority of commercial airports
May 4 2026
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements
May 8 plunges to 10%17%
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements materialized; absence of qualifying closure news caused
May 4 2026
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major
May 31 surges to 59%18%
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major airports (IKA, MHD) grounded
May 4 2026
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice,
May 31 dips to 55%4%
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice, pushing the market back up
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting UAE airspace restrictions
May 31 surges to 62%22%
Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE led to renewed UAE airspace restrictions and increased regional tensions, significantly raising the probability of Iran imposing a major airspace closure.
May 2 2026
Reports emerge of increased military activity near Iranian airspace
May 31 drops to 31%11%
News of military drills and missile tests near Iranian airspace led to partial airspace restrictions but no major closure, causing a market dip as the risk of a full closure appeared lower.
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced temporary restrictions on airspace access affecting commercial flights, signaling heightened security concerns and raising market expectations of a possible broader closure.
May 1 2026
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate
May 8 dips to 21%3%
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate market optimism (around 24%) that a closure might occur
Feb 28 2026
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad
May 15 drops to 14%6%
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad suspension
Feb 28 2026
Middle East airspace shuts after US‑Israel strike on Iran;
May 15 drops to 27%5%
Iran closes its airspace to civilian traffic, prompting fears of a broad closure that pushed the market up
Feb 28 2026
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes
May 15 dips to 11%3%
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes and not a nationwide suspension
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"Iran closes its airspace by...?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 9 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "June 30" ở mức 47%, tiếp theo là "May 31" ở mức 39%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 47¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 47% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.
Tính đến hôm nay, "Iran closes its airspace by...?" đã tạo $13.1 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào May 1, 2026. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.
Để giao dịch trên "Iran closes its airspace by...?," duyệt 9 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.
Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Iran closes its airspace by...?" là "June 30" ở mức 47%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 47% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "May 31" ở mức 39%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.
Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Iran closes its airspace by...?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.
Có. Bạn không cần giao dịch để cập nhật thông tin. Trang này đóng vai trò theo dõi trực tiếp cho "Iran closes its airspace by...?." Xác suất kết quả cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi có giao dịch mới. Bạn có thể đánh dấu trang này và kiểm tra phần bình luận để xem trader khác đang nói gì. Bạn cũng có thể sử dụng bộ lọc khoảng thời gian trên biểu đồ để xem tỷ lệ đã thay đổi thế nào. Đây là cửa sổ miễn phí, thời gian thực vào điều thị trường kỳ vọng sẽ xảy ra.
Tỷ lệ Polymarket được đặt bởi trader thực đặt tiền thực đằng sau niềm tin, có xu hướng đưa ra dự đoán chính xác. Với $13.1 million được giao dịch trên "Iran closes its airspace by...?," giá này tổng hợp kiến thức và niềm tin tập thể của hàng nghìn người tham gia — thường vượt trội hơn thăm dò, dự báo chuyên gia và khảo sát truyền thống. Thị trường dự đoán như Polymarket có thành tích chính xác mạnh, đặc biệt khi sự kiện tiến gần ngày giải quyết. Ví dụ, Polymarket có điểm chính xác một tháng là 94%. Để biết thống kê mới nhất về độ chính xác dự đoán của Polymarket, truy cập trang độ chính xác trên Polymarket.
Để đặt lệnh đầu tiên trên "Iran closes its airspace by...?," đăng ký tài khoản Polymarket miễn phí và nạp tiền bằng crypto, thẻ tín dụng hoặc ghi nợ, hoặc chuyển khoản ngân hàng. Khi tài khoản đã được nạp, quay lại trang này, chọn kết quả bạn muốn giao dịch, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu bạn mới với thị trường dự đoán, nhấn liên kết "Cách hoạt động" ở đầu bất kỳ trang Polymarket nào để xem hướng dẫn từng bước nhanh về cách giao dịch.
Trên Polymarket, giá của mỗi kết quả đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Giá 47¢ cho "June 30" trong thị trường "Iran closes its airspace by...?" nghĩa là trader tập thể tin rằng có khoảng 47% khả năng "June 30" sẽ là kết quả đúng. Nếu bạn mua cổ phần "Có" ở 47¢ và kết quả đúng, bạn nhận $1.00 mỗi cổ phần — lợi nhuận 53¢ mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, cổ phần đó giá trị $0.
Thị trường "Iran closes its airspace by...?" dự kiến giải quyết vào hoặc khoảng May 31, 2026. Điều này có nghĩa giao dịch vẫn mở và tỷ lệ tiếp tục thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện cho đến ngày đó. Thời gian giải quyết chính xác phụ thuộc vào khi kết quả chính thức có sẵn, như được nêu trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này.
Thị trường "Iran closes its airspace by...?" có cộng đồng sôi động với 681 bình luận nơi trader chia sẻ phân tích, tranh luận kết quả và thảo luận diễn biến mới nhất. Cuộn xuống phần bình luận bên dưới để đọc ý kiến từ người tham gia khác. Bạn cũng có thể lọc theo "Người nắm giữ hàng đầu" để xem trader lớn nhất đang đặt cược vào đâu, hoặc kiểm tra tab "Hoạt động" cho dữ liệu giao dịch theo thời gian thực.
Polymarket là thị trường dự đoán lớn nhất thế giới, nơi bạn có thể cập nhật thông tin và kiếm lợi nhuận từ kiến thức về sự kiện thực tế. Trader mua và bán cổ phần trên kết quả cho các chủ đề từ chính trị và bầu cử đến crypto, tài chính, thể thao, công nghệ và văn hoá, bao gồm các thị trường như "Iran closes its airspace by...?." Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực được hỗ trợ bởi niềm tin tài chính, thường cung cấp tín hiệu nhanh và chính xác hơn thăm dò, bình luận viên hoặc khảo sát truyền thống.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp