Iran's post-2026 war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on the likelihood of a widely reported coup attempt through year-end. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February strikes, hardline factions have repeatedly accused figures such as Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian, and the Supreme Council for National Security of engineering a "soft coup" or sidelining clerical authority in favor of military or pragmatic control during truce talks and succession deliberations. Ongoing protests, internet restrictions, and security force deployments continue to highlight regime fractures, yet no verified military or elite-led coup bid has materialized since the February escalation. These dynamics keep implied probabilities modest, with traders weighing further instability against the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress challenges.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,115,813 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 KL.
December 31
$74,587 KL.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-2026 war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on the likelihood of a widely reported coup attempt through year-end. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February strikes, hardline factions have repeatedly accused figures such as Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian, and the Supreme Council for National Security of engineering a "soft coup" or sidelining clerical authority in favor of military or pragmatic control during truce talks and succession deliberations. Ongoing protests, internet restrictions, and security force deployments continue to highlight regime fractures, yet no verified military or elite-led coup bid has materialized since the February escalation. These dynamics keep implied probabilities modest, with traders weighing further instability against the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,115,813Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-2026 war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on the likelihood of a widely reported coup attempt through year-end. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February strikes, hardline factions have repeatedly accused figures such as Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian, and the Supreme Council for National Security of engineering a "soft coup" or sidelining clerical authority in favor of military or pragmatic control during truce talks and succession deliberations. Ongoing protests, internet restrictions, and security force deployments continue to highlight regime fractures, yet no verified military or elite-led coup bid has materialized since the February escalation. These dynamics keep implied probabilities modest, with traders weighing further instability against the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,115,813Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-2026 war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on the likelihood of a widely reported coup attempt through year-end. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February strikes, hardline factions have repeatedly accused figures such as Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian, and the Supreme Council for National Security of engineering a "soft coup" or sidelining clerical authority in favor of military or pragmatic control during truce talks and succession deliberations. Ongoing protests, internet restrictions, and security force deployments continue to highlight regime fractures, yet no verified military or elite-led coup bid has materialized since the February escalation. These dynamics keep implied probabilities modest, with traders weighing further instability against the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress challenges.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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