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Thế Giới·Trung Đông

Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?

icon for Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?
Thế Giới·Trung Đông

Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.7%

Reza Pahlavi 8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 3.7%

Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia 2.6%

Polymarket

$8,674,190 KL.

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.7%

Reza Pahlavi 8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 3.7%

Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia 2.6%

Polymarket

$8,674,190 KL.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,078,789 KL.

65%

Reza Pahlavi

$209,883 KL.

8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$229,401 KL.

4%

Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia

$489,251 KL.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$214,431 KL.

2%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$326,258 KL.

2%

Ahmad Vahidi

$299,320 KL.

2%

Navid Shomali

$89,614 KL.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$142,575 KL.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$860,892 KL.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$354,479 KL.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$813,099 KL.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$318,646 KL.

1%

Massoud Rajavi

$75,414 KL.

1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$90,865 KL.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$448,007 KL.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 KL.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$93,612 KL.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$290,404 KL.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$181,198 KL.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$52,010 KL.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$101,935 KL.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$83,015 KL.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,445 KL.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$53,928 KL.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,423 KL.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$87,111 KL.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$76,778 KL.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$39,296 KL.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,670 KL.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, followed by the Assembly of Experts' March selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, has established the primary driver behind current trader consensus. Mojtaba's elevation, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps networks despite traditional clerical resistance to hereditary succession, positions him as the frontrunner for head of state at year-end 2026. Ongoing regional conflict, limited public appearances by the new leader, and questions over regime stability sustain lower probabilities for alternatives such as exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi or other clerics like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. These factors reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing continuity risks versus potential disruptions from wartime pressures or internal power shifts through the resolution window.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Khối lượng
$8,674,190
Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026
Thị trường mở
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, followed by the Assembly of Experts' March selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, has established the primary driver behind current trader consensus. Mojtaba's elevation, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps networks despite traditional clerical resistance to hereditary succession, positions him as the frontrunner for head of state at year-end 2026. Ongoing regional conflict, limited public appearances by the new leader, and questions over regime stability sustain lower probabilities for alternatives such as exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi or other clerics like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. These factors reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing continuity risks versus potential disruptions from wartime pressures or internal power shifts through the resolution window.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Khối lượng
$8,674,190
Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026
Thị trường mở
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.

Câu hỏi thường gặp

"Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 32 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "Mojtaba Khamenei" ở mức 65%, tiếp theo là "Reza Pahlavi" ở mức 8%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 65¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 65% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.

Tính đến hôm nay, "Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?" đã tạo $8.7 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Mar 1, 2026. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.

Để giao dịch trên "Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?," duyệt 32 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.

Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?" là "Mojtaba Khamenei" ở mức 65%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 65% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "Reza Pahlavi" ở mức 8%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.

Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.