The U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, effective since October 2025 under a phased plan including Hamas disarmament, faces breakdown risks as Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov stated on May 13 that progress hinges on Hamas surrendering weapons amid daily violations by both sides, including Israeli strikes killing Palestinians and expanded territorial control via a westward "yellow line." No Israeli announcement of extension has occurred; instead, officials threatened war resumption on May 3 to enforce compliance, echoing UN warnings of an "increasingly fragile" truce on April 28. Diplomatic talks led by Egypt, Qatar, and the envoy continue, with trader consensus reflecting stalled Phase II negotiations and potential escalation absent disarmament agreement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIsrael Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
MỚI
$45,891 KL.
May 17, 2026
May 13
1%
May 14
6%
May 15
41%
May 16
54%
May 17
54%
$45,891 KL.
May 13
$11,640 KL.
1%
May 14
$15,939 KL.
6%
May 15
$8,419 KL.
41%
May 16
$4,512 KL.
54%
May 17
$5,382 KL.
54%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.The U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, effective since October 2025 under a phased plan including Hamas disarmament, faces breakdown risks as Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov stated on May 13 that progress hinges on Hamas surrendering weapons amid daily violations by both sides, including Israeli strikes killing Palestinians and expanded territorial control via a westward "yellow line." No Israeli announcement of extension has occurred; instead, officials threatened war resumption on May 3 to enforce compliance, echoing UN warnings of an "increasingly fragile" truce on April 28. Diplomatic talks led by Egypt, Qatar, and the envoy continue, with trader consensus reflecting stalled Phase II negotiations and potential escalation absent disarmament agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$45,891Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.The U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, effective since October 2025 under a phased plan including Hamas disarmament, faces breakdown risks as Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov stated on May 13 that progress hinges on Hamas surrendering weapons amid daily violations by both sides, including Israeli strikes killing Palestinians and expanded territorial control via a westward "yellow line." No Israeli announcement of extension has occurred; instead, officials threatened war resumption on May 3 to enforce compliance, echoing UN warnings of an "increasingly fragile" truce on April 28. Diplomatic talks led by Egypt, Qatar, and the envoy continue, with trader consensus reflecting stalled Phase II negotiations and potential escalation absent disarmament agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Khối lượng
$45,891Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, effective since October 2025 under a phased plan including Hamas disarmament, faces breakdown risks as Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov stated on May 13 that progress hinges on Hamas surrendering weapons amid daily violations by both sides, including Israeli strikes killing Palestinians and expanded territorial control via a westward "yellow line." No Israeli announcement of extension has occurred; instead, officials threatened war resumption on May 3 to enforce compliance, echoing UN warnings of an "increasingly fragile" truce on April 28. Diplomatic talks led by Egypt, Qatar, and the envoy continue, with trader consensus reflecting stalled Phase II negotiations and potential escalation absent disarmament agreement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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