Trader consensus on the Seattle lowest temperature market strongly favors the 52-53°F bin at 95.5% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations and model guidance showing an overnight low in that narrow range for September 11. Mid-September climatology supports this positioning, with Seattle-Tacoma Airport normals near 53-54°F and recent days recording similar minima amid stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Preliminary climatological data align closely with this outcome, minimizing uncertainty from model spread or measurement differences across stations. A realistic challenge would require post-event data revision or confirmation that an urban heat island effect or station-specific reading pushed the official minimum outside the bin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Seattle on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Seattle on September 11?
52-53°F 99.5%
47°F or below 20%
50-51°F 20%
48-49°F <1%
$1,198 KL.
$1,198 KL.
Sep 11, 2026
47°F or below
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
Yes
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66°F or higher
No
52-53°F 99.5%
47°F or below 20%
50-51°F 20%
48-49°F <1%
$1,198 KL.
$1,198 KL.
Sep 11, 2026
47°F or below
$0 KL.
No
48-49°F
$80 KL.
No
50-51°F
$15 KL.
No
52-53°F
$135 KL.
Yes
54-55°F
$424 KL.
No
56-57°F
$283 KL.
No
58-59°F
$20 KL.
No
60-61°F
$60 KL.
No
62-63°F
$60 KL.
No
64-65°F
$60 KL.
No
66°F or higher
$60 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Seattle lowest temperature market strongly favors the 52-53°F bin at 95.5% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations and model guidance showing an overnight low in that narrow range for September 11. Mid-September climatology supports this positioning, with Seattle-Tacoma Airport normals near 53-54°F and recent days recording similar minima amid stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Preliminary climatological data align closely with this outcome, minimizing uncertainty from model spread or measurement differences across stations. A realistic challenge would require post-event data revision or confirmation that an urban heat island effect or station-specific reading pushed the official minimum outside the bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,198Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Seattle lowest temperature market strongly favors the 52-53°F bin at 95.5% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations and model guidance showing an overnight low in that narrow range for September 11. Mid-September climatology supports this positioning, with Seattle-Tacoma Airport normals near 53-54°F and recent days recording similar minima amid stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Preliminary climatological data align closely with this outcome, minimizing uncertainty from model spread or measurement differences across stations. A realistic challenge would require post-event data revision or confirmation that an urban heat island effect or station-specific reading pushed the official minimum outside the bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,198Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on the Seattle lowest temperature market strongly favors the 52-53°F bin at 95.5% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations and model guidance showing an overnight low in that narrow range for September 11. Mid-September climatology supports this positioning, with Seattle-Tacoma Airport normals near 53-54°F and recent days recording similar minima amid stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Preliminary climatological data align closely with this outcome, minimizing uncertainty from model spread or measurement differences across stations. A realistic challenge would require post-event data revision or confirmation that an urban heat island effect or station-specific reading pushed the official minimum outside the bin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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