Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 17 minimum temperature, with ensemble models projecting a narrow cluster around 15–19°C amid mild early-May conditions and no dominant cold fronts. Recent model runs show slight divergence: warmer outcomes like 18–19°C gaining edge from persistent high-pressure ridging suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, while cooler 15–17°C possibilities stem from potential scattered showers and light southerly winds enhancing urban heat island moderation in central Tokyo. Historical mid-May lows average 16°C, aligning with the balanced odds; extremes remain unlikely given climatological baselines. JMA's next advisory on May 14 could refine steering patterns and cloud cover, key differentiators for the overnight low at official Haneda or central stations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
18°C 36%
16°C 21%
17°C 20%
19°C 18%
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
8%
15°C
7%
16°C
21%
17°C
20%
18°C
27%
19°C
18%
20°C
6%
21°C
4%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
18°C 36%
16°C 21%
17°C 20%
19°C 18%
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$38 KL.
8%
15°C
$41 KL.
7%
16°C
$3 KL.
21%
17°C
$0 KL.
20%
18°C
$3 KL.
27%
19°C
$0 KL.
18%
20°C
$0 KL.
6%
21°C
$57 KL.
4%
22°C
$30 KL.
1%
23°C
$142 KL.
1%
24°C or higher
$57 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 17 minimum temperature, with ensemble models projecting a narrow cluster around 15–19°C amid mild early-May conditions and no dominant cold fronts. Recent model runs show slight divergence: warmer outcomes like 18–19°C gaining edge from persistent high-pressure ridging suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, while cooler 15–17°C possibilities stem from potential scattered showers and light southerly winds enhancing urban heat island moderation in central Tokyo. Historical mid-May lows average 16°C, aligning with the balanced odds; extremes remain unlikely given climatological baselines. JMA's next advisory on May 14 could refine steering patterns and cloud cover, key differentiators for the overnight low at official Haneda or central stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$370Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 17 minimum temperature, with ensemble models projecting a narrow cluster around 15–19°C amid mild early-May conditions and no dominant cold fronts. Recent model runs show slight divergence: warmer outcomes like 18–19°C gaining edge from persistent high-pressure ridging suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, while cooler 15–17°C possibilities stem from potential scattered showers and light southerly winds enhancing urban heat island moderation in central Tokyo. Historical mid-May lows average 16°C, aligning with the balanced odds; extremes remain unlikely given climatological baselines. JMA's next advisory on May 14 could refine steering patterns and cloud cover, key differentiators for the overnight low at official Haneda or central stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$370Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 17 minimum temperature, with ensemble models projecting a narrow cluster around 15–19°C amid mild early-May conditions and no dominant cold fronts. Recent model runs show slight divergence: warmer outcomes like 18–19°C gaining edge from persistent high-pressure ridging suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, while cooler 15–17°C possibilities stem from potential scattered showers and light southerly winds enhancing urban heat island moderation in central Tokyo. Historical mid-May lows average 16°C, aligning with the balanced odds; extremes remain unlikely given climatological baselines. JMA's next advisory on May 14 could refine steering patterns and cloud cover, key differentiators for the overnight low at official Haneda or central stations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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