Republican incumbent Brad Finstad holds a structural edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+6 partisan voting index that he carried by 17 points in 2024. Early 2026 polling shows the race narrower than the district’s baseline, with Finstad leading Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by single digits in some surveys and within the margin of error in others. The August 11 primaries remain the next scheduled inflection point, while Democratic campaign committees have added the seat to targeted pickup lists. Traders appear to price the Republican hold as the most probable outcome given the district’s voting history and Finstad’s incumbency, while assigning Democrats a meaningful but secondary chance tied to national midterm dynamics and any further tightening in local surveys.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMN-01 House Election Winner
MN-01 House Election Winner
$11,632 KL.
$11,632 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
69%
Democratic Party
28%
$11,632 KL.
$11,632 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,299 KL.
69%
Democratic Party
$7,333 KL.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Brad Finstad holds a structural edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+6 partisan voting index that he carried by 17 points in 2024. Early 2026 polling shows the race narrower than the district’s baseline, with Finstad leading Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by single digits in some surveys and within the margin of error in others. The August 11 primaries remain the next scheduled inflection point, while Democratic campaign committees have added the seat to targeted pickup lists. Traders appear to price the Republican hold as the most probable outcome given the district’s voting history and Finstad’s incumbency, while assigning Democrats a meaningful but secondary chance tied to national midterm dynamics and any further tightening in local surveys.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$11,632Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Brad Finstad holds a structural edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+6 partisan voting index that he carried by 17 points in 2024. Early 2026 polling shows the race narrower than the district’s baseline, with Finstad leading Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by single digits in some surveys and within the margin of error in others. The August 11 primaries remain the next scheduled inflection point, while Democratic campaign committees have added the seat to targeted pickup lists. Traders appear to price the Republican hold as the most probable outcome given the district’s voting history and Finstad’s incumbency, while assigning Democrats a meaningful but secondary chance tied to national midterm dynamics and any further tightening in local surveys.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$11,632Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Brad Finstad holds a structural edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+6 partisan voting index that he carried by 17 points in 2024. Early 2026 polling shows the race narrower than the district’s baseline, with Finstad leading Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by single digits in some surveys and within the margin of error in others. The August 11 primaries remain the next scheduled inflection point, while Democratic campaign committees have added the seat to targeted pickup lists. Traders appear to price the Republican hold as the most probable outcome given the district’s voting history and Finstad’s incumbency, while assigning Democrats a meaningful but secondary chance tied to national midterm dynamics and any further tightening in local surveys.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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