Incumbent Republican Jason Smith, who secured a 76% victory margin in 2024 amid MO-08's R+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus toward a commanding 92.5% implied probability for the Republican Party in the November 3 general election. Smith's March reelection filing and strong fundraising position him favorably ahead of the August 4 primaries, where fragmented Democratic contenders—including Frank Barnitz and others—lack a competitive profile in this reliably red district. No recent polls show movement, reinforcing historical base rates of overwhelming GOP dominance. Realistic challenges would require a GOP primary upset, personal scandal hitting Smith, health issues, or an unprecedented national Democratic wave flipping deep-red seats.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMO-08 House Election Winner
MO-08 House Election Winner
$29,190 KL.
$29,190 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$29,190 KL.
$29,190 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$18,978 KL.
93%
Democratic Party
$10,212 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jason Smith, who secured a 76% victory margin in 2024 amid MO-08's R+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus toward a commanding 92.5% implied probability for the Republican Party in the November 3 general election. Smith's March reelection filing and strong fundraising position him favorably ahead of the August 4 primaries, where fragmented Democratic contenders—including Frank Barnitz and others—lack a competitive profile in this reliably red district. No recent polls show movement, reinforcing historical base rates of overwhelming GOP dominance. Realistic challenges would require a GOP primary upset, personal scandal hitting Smith, health issues, or an unprecedented national Democratic wave flipping deep-red seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$29,190Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jason Smith, who secured a 76% victory margin in 2024 amid MO-08's R+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus toward a commanding 92.5% implied probability for the Republican Party in the November 3 general election. Smith's March reelection filing and strong fundraising position him favorably ahead of the August 4 primaries, where fragmented Democratic contenders—including Frank Barnitz and others—lack a competitive profile in this reliably red district. No recent polls show movement, reinforcing historical base rates of overwhelming GOP dominance. Realistic challenges would require a GOP primary upset, personal scandal hitting Smith, health issues, or an unprecedented national Democratic wave flipping deep-red seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$29,190Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jason Smith, who secured a 76% victory margin in 2024 amid MO-08's R+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus toward a commanding 92.5% implied probability for the Republican Party in the November 3 general election. Smith's March reelection filing and strong fundraising position him favorably ahead of the August 4 primaries, where fragmented Democratic contenders—including Frank Barnitz and others—lack a competitive profile in this reliably red district. No recent polls show movement, reinforcing historical base rates of overwhelming GOP dominance. Realistic challenges would require a GOP primary upset, personal scandal hitting Smith, health issues, or an unprecedented national Democratic wave flipping deep-red seats.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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