Recent U.S. GDP data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1, with private investment and consumer spending providing key support amid resilient domestic demand. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and S&P Global, project full-year expansion of 2.1–2.3%, consistent with above-trend momentum from business capex and stable labor conditions rather than contraction. While downside risks such as sharper tariff impacts, fiscal tightening, or an unexpected policy shock could pressure quarterly readings, these factors would need to intensify dramatically to produce outright negative annual growth given the current positive base.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% khả năng
$32,234 KL.
$32,234 KL.
Jan 28, 2027
4% khả năng
$32,234 KL.
$32,234 KL.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. GDP data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1, with private investment and consumer spending providing key support amid resilient domestic demand. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and S&P Global, project full-year expansion of 2.1–2.3%, consistent with above-trend momentum from business capex and stable labor conditions rather than contraction. While downside risks such as sharper tariff impacts, fiscal tightening, or an unexpected policy shock could pressure quarterly readings, these factors would need to intensify dramatically to produce outright negative annual growth given the current positive base.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$32,234Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. GDP data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1, with private investment and consumer spending providing key support amid resilient domestic demand. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and S&P Global, project full-year expansion of 2.1–2.3%, consistent with above-trend momentum from business capex and stable labor conditions rather than contraction. While downside risks such as sharper tariff impacts, fiscal tightening, or an unexpected policy shock could pressure quarterly readings, these factors would need to intensify dramatically to produce outright negative annual growth given the current positive base.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$32,234Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. GDP data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1, with private investment and consumer spending providing key support amid resilient domestic demand. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and S&P Global, project full-year expansion of 2.1–2.3%, consistent with above-trend momentum from business capex and stable labor conditions rather than contraction. While downside risks such as sharper tariff impacts, fiscal tightening, or an unexpected policy shock could pressure quarterly readings, these factors would need to intensify dramatically to produce outright negative annual growth given the current positive base.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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