Traders are pricing a 93.7 percent probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026 amid resilient first-quarter data showing a 2.0 percent annualized advance, led by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and major banks project full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds from recent legislation and steady private-sector demand that outweighs modest headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth. While elevated inflation readings and potential policy shifts could weigh on consumption, current leading indicators and corporate capital-expenditure trends point to sustained positive momentum through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$26,508 KL.
$26,508 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
$26,508 KL.
$26,508 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Traders are pricing a 93.7 percent probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026 amid resilient first-quarter data showing a 2.0 percent annualized advance, led by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and major banks project full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds from recent legislation and steady private-sector demand that outweighs modest headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth. While elevated inflation readings and potential policy shifts could weigh on consumption, current leading indicators and corporate capital-expenditure trends point to sustained positive momentum through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,508Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Traders are pricing a 93.7 percent probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026 amid resilient first-quarter data showing a 2.0 percent annualized advance, led by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and major banks project full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds from recent legislation and steady private-sector demand that outweighs modest headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth. While elevated inflation readings and potential policy shifts could weigh on consumption, current leading indicators and corporate capital-expenditure trends point to sustained positive momentum through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$26,508Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders are pricing a 93.7 percent probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026 amid resilient first-quarter data showing a 2.0 percent annualized advance, led by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and major banks project full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds from recent legislation and steady private-sector demand that outweighs modest headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth. While elevated inflation readings and potential policy shifts could weigh on consumption, current leading indicators and corporate capital-expenditure trends point to sustained positive momentum through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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