**The tightly contested market for Nelson Mandela Bay’s next mayor reflects a fragmented local government election on 4 November 2026, where no party is expected to secure an outright majority and coalition negotiations will likely determine the outcome.** Retief Odendaal of the DA and Andile Lungisa of the ANC lead trader pricing amid a crowded field of 38 parties and independents, with the current ANC-led coalition facing ongoing service delivery failures, financial strain, and internal divisions. Recent developments include Lungisa’s court challenge after his exclusion from the ANC’s proportional representation list despite branch support, the party’s indication that shortlisted mayoral candidates could be added post-election, and active campaigning by Odendaal on administrative reform and infrastructure. EFF candidate Sinawo Thambo and others add further uncertainty in a metro where smaller parties have historically wielded outsized influence in coalitions.