Recent dry conditions across southern England, with London recording just 1 mm of rain through mid-May against a 46 mm climatological average, have anchored trader sentiment around 10-20 mm totals for the full month. Persistent high-pressure systems have suppressed convective uplift and Atlantic frontal activity, producing mostly settled anticyclonic flow with minimal shower development. Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF continue to favor below-normal rainfall through the end of May, though occasional weak troughs could still add isolated totals of 5-10 mm in the final fortnight. This scientific setup keeps the closely matched 15-20 mm and 10-15 mm outcomes in the lead, reflecting limited upside potential for heavier accumulation.