The Trump administration has expanded federal equity investments in strategic sectors since early 2025, completing stakes or warrants in roughly 35 companies worth $18–28 billion through Commerce Department CHIPS Act programs, Pentagon authorities like the Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment initiative and Office of Strategic Capital, and Energy Department actions. Recent September 2026 closings include Hertha Metals ($65 million equity) and Elmet Group ($450 million preferred shares plus warrants), building on earlier positions in Intel (approximately 10 percent), MP Materials, quantum computing firms, and critical minerals suppliers. Trader probabilities reflect ongoing national security priorities around domestic supply chains for semiconductors, rare earths, defense manufacturing, and emerging technologies, with President Trump publicly signaling potential similar arrangements for AI companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. Markets also price in remaining 2026 timeline risks, including legal challenges to agency authorities and the requirement for binding equity acquisitions by year-end.