Québec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal ridings under the first-past-the-post system, with multiple districts such as Gouin and Mercier projected as safe or likely holds in current models. Despite an overall popular vote share near 10 percent in recent polling aggregates, the party's urban concentrations and incumbency in key seats underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes probability. The election campaign, launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, features QS defending longstanding strongholds amid broader shifts favoring the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sharp late swings in turnout or preferences eroding these pockets, though seat projections across forecasters assign this low likelihood.