Recent polling aggregates project the Parti Conservateur du Québec at roughly 15% popular support ahead of the October 5 election, translating via regional modeling into a median of about 11 seats with wide ranges reflecting riding-level volatility. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 8-13 seat bins because PCQ strength concentrates in the Quebec City area, where it leads or contests multiple ridings against the CAQ, while vote efficiency remains low elsewhere due to fragmented opposition and limited francophone penetration outside that base. The just-called campaign and recent CAQ polling recovery have kept seat forecasts fluid, with any late consolidation of right-of-center votes or stronger turnout in targeted districts the main variables that could push totals higher or cap them near single digits.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật8-10 29%
11-13 25%
<5 14%
5-7 12%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 5, 2026
<5
14%
5-7
12%
8-10
23%
11-13
25%
14-16
10%
17+
6%
8-10 29%
11-13 25%
<5 14%
5-7 12%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$1,230 KL.
14%
5-7
$361 KL.
12%
8-10
$829 KL.
23%
11-13
$947 KL.
25%
14-16
$744 KL.
10%
17+
$716 KL.
6%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the Parti Conservateur du Québec at roughly 15% popular support ahead of the October 5 election, translating via regional modeling into a median of about 11 seats with wide ranges reflecting riding-level volatility. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 8-13 seat bins because PCQ strength concentrates in the Quebec City area, where it leads or contests multiple ridings against the CAQ, while vote efficiency remains low elsewhere due to fragmented opposition and limited francophone penetration outside that base. The just-called campaign and recent CAQ polling recovery have kept seat forecasts fluid, with any late consolidation of right-of-center votes or stronger turnout in targeted districts the main variables that could push totals higher or cap them near single digits.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Thị trường mở: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,826Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the Parti Conservateur du Québec at roughly 15% popular support ahead of the October 5 election, translating via regional modeling into a median of about 11 seats with wide ranges reflecting riding-level volatility. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 8-13 seat bins because PCQ strength concentrates in the Quebec City area, where it leads or contests multiple ridings against the CAQ, while vote efficiency remains low elsewhere due to fragmented opposition and limited francophone penetration outside that base. The just-called campaign and recent CAQ polling recovery have kept seat forecasts fluid, with any late consolidation of right-of-center votes or stronger turnout in targeted districts the main variables that could push totals higher or cap them near single digits.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Khối lượng
$4,826Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates project the Parti Conservateur du Québec at roughly 15% popular support ahead of the October 5 election, translating via regional modeling into a median of about 11 seats with wide ranges reflecting riding-level volatility. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 8-13 seat bins because PCQ strength concentrates in the Quebec City area, where it leads or contests multiple ridings against the CAQ, while vote efficiency remains low elsewhere due to fragmented opposition and limited francophone penetration outside that base. The just-called campaign and recent CAQ polling recovery have kept seat forecasts fluid, with any late consolidation of right-of-center votes or stronger turnout in targeted districts the main variables that could push totals higher or cap them near single digits.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp