Israel’s naval forces have repeatedly intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla’s vessels in international waters, most recently near Crete in late April 2026, detaining over 100 activists and redirecting ships to regroup in Turkey before their latest departure on May 14. With the remaining distance exceeding 1,000 nautical miles and only two weeks until the May 31 resolution date, enforcement patterns and the short timeline underpin trader consensus that arrival in Gaza is highly unlikely. Historical outcomes of similar missions since 2010 show consistent prevention short of territorial waters. An abrupt diplomatic shift halting naval operations or undetected transit through enforcement zones could still alter the result before the deadline.