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icon for 又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？

又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？

icon for 又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？

又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？

$23,592 交易量

2026-05-31
Polymarket

$23,592 交易量

Polymarket

5月15日

$2,700 交易量

15%

5月30日

$7,644 交易量

51%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on global seismic quietude since the April 20, 2026, M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan—the most recent per USGS records—with no M7+ quakes in the ensuing 23 days, aligning with historical averages of about 15 such events worldwide annually (roughly one every 24 days). USGS real-time monitoring via its global seismograph network shows no unusual swarms, foreshock sequences, or strain accumulation signals warranting elevated risk, underscoring earthquakes' inherent unpredictability on short timescales due to complex tectonic fault dynamics. Key resolution hinges on USGS final moment magnitude determinations; traders eye continuous catalog updates, with baseline Poisson-distributed probability governing expectations absent new data.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$23,592
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on global seismic quietude since the April 20, 2026, M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan—the most recent per USGS records—with no M7+ quakes in the ensuing 23 days, aligning with historical averages of about 15 such events worldwide annually (roughly one every 24 days). USGS real-time monitoring via its global seismograph network shows no unusual swarms, foreshock sequences, or strain accumulation signals warranting elevated risk, underscoring earthquakes' inherent unpredictability on short timescales due to complex tectonic fault dynamics. Key resolution hinges on USGS final moment magnitude determinations; traders eye continuous catalog updates, with baseline Poisson-distributed probability governing expectations absent new data.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$23,592
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5月30日" at 51%, followed by "5月15日" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" has generated $23.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" is "5月30日" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5月15日" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.