Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts project a Seoul overnight minimum of 14°C on May 17 under clear skies and light winds, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble guidance from regional stations reinforces this projection through enhanced radiative cooling overnight, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where Seoul averages 12–15°C lows. Traders are aligning with these model runs because resolution hinges on official KMA observations, leaving little room for variance. A sudden increase in cloud cover or stronger winds could nudge temperatures slightly higher, but current atmospheric conditions show no such trend ahead of tonight’s data release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日首爾最低溫度?
14°C 97.6%
13°C 2.3%
12°C或以下 1.1%
15°C <1%
$13,125 交易量
$13,125 交易量
12°C或以下
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
98%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C或更高
<1%
14°C 97.6%
13°C 2.3%
12°C或以下 1.1%
15°C <1%
$13,125 交易量
$13,125 交易量
12°C或以下
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
98%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts project a Seoul overnight minimum of 14°C on May 17 under clear skies and light winds, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble guidance from regional stations reinforces this projection through enhanced radiative cooling overnight, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where Seoul averages 12–15°C lows. Traders are aligning with these model runs because resolution hinges on official KMA observations, leaving little room for variance. A sudden increase in cloud cover or stronger winds could nudge temperatures slightly higher, but current atmospheric conditions show no such trend ahead of tonight’s data release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions