Market participants have converged overwhelmingly on a lowest temperature of 14°C in Seoul for May 16, reflected in the 99.6% implied probability. This positioning stems from consistent observational data and model outputs showing nighttime radiative cooling under clear, stable high-pressure conditions over the Korean Peninsula, with minimum readings aligning precisely at that threshold according to official monitoring networks. Historical mid-May climatology supports typical lows in the 12–15°C range, and no significant frontal activity or moisture intrusion altered the pattern. While minor revisions in post-event quality-controlled station data or localized microclimate effects could theoretically shift the final figure, the tight convergence of real-time measurements makes such adjustments improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月16日首爾最低溫度?
14°C 99.6%
13°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$45,953 交易量
$45,953 交易量
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C或以上
<1%
14°C 99.6%
13°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$45,953 交易量
$45,953 交易量
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market participants have converged overwhelmingly on a lowest temperature of 14°C in Seoul for May 16, reflected in the 99.6% implied probability. This positioning stems from consistent observational data and model outputs showing nighttime radiative cooling under clear, stable high-pressure conditions over the Korean Peninsula, with minimum readings aligning precisely at that threshold according to official monitoring networks. Historical mid-May climatology supports typical lows in the 12–15°C range, and no significant frontal activity or moisture intrusion altered the pattern. While minor revisions in post-event quality-controlled station data or localized microclimate effects could theoretically shift the final figure, the tight convergence of real-time measurements makes such adjustments improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions