Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts drive the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–11°C for London’s overnight low on May 17, as a mild southwesterly flow advects Atlantic air while variable cloud cover limits radiative cooling under clear-sky conditions. Model consensus shows limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures, with differences arising mainly from precise timing of any clearing skies and local urban heat-island effects near official observation sites. Historical May minima for the region average near 8°C, placing today’s expected values slightly above climatology and underscoring why traders see genuine uncertainty until the final 00Z model runs and post-midnight observations narrow the range before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日倫敦的最低溫度？
5月17日倫敦的最低溫度？
10°C 30%
9°C 23%
11°C 19%
8°C 5.7%
最新
最新
2026-05-17
2°C或以下
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
6%
9°C
23%
10°C
31%
11°C
24%
12°C或以上
<1%
10°C 30%
9°C 23%
11°C 19%
8°C 5.7%
最新
最新
2026-05-17
2°C或以下
$187 交易量
<1%
3°C
$349 交易量
<1%
4°C
$737 交易量
<1%
5°C
$305 交易量
<1%
6°C
$478 交易量
<1%
7°C
$421 交易量
<1%
8°C
$562 交易量
6%
9°C
$153 交易量
23%
10°C
$128 交易量
31%
11°C
$192 交易量
24%
12°C或以上
$2,358 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts drive the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–11°C for London’s overnight low on May 17, as a mild southwesterly flow advects Atlantic air while variable cloud cover limits radiative cooling under clear-sky conditions. Model consensus shows limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures, with differences arising mainly from precise timing of any clearing skies and local urban heat-island effects near official observation sites. Historical May minima for the region average near 8°C, placing today’s expected values slightly above climatology and underscoring why traders see genuine uncertainty until the final 00Z model runs and post-midnight observations narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
交易量
$5,871結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts drive the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–11°C for London’s overnight low on May 17, as a mild southwesterly flow advects Atlantic air while variable cloud cover limits radiative cooling under clear-sky conditions. Model consensus shows limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures, with differences arising mainly from precise timing of any clearing skies and local urban heat-island effects near official observation sites. Historical May minima for the region average near 8°C, placing today’s expected values slightly above climatology and underscoring why traders see genuine uncertainty until the final 00Z model runs and post-midnight observations narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$5,871結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETRecent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts drive the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–11°C for London’s overnight low on May 17, as a mild southwesterly flow advects Atlantic air while variable cloud cover limits radiative cooling under clear-sky conditions. Model consensus shows limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures, with differences arising mainly from precise timing of any clearing skies and local urban heat-island effects near official observation sites. Historical May minima for the region average near 8°C, placing today’s expected values slightly above climatology and underscoring why traders see genuine uncertainty until the final 00Z model runs and post-midnight observations narrow the range before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions