Diverging guidance between the GFS and ECMWF forecast models is driving the tightest market-implied odds toward the 62–65°F bins for New York City’s overnight low on May 17. Recent ensemble runs point to minimum temperatures near 62–65°F under partly cloudy skies and weak high pressure, which limits radiative cooling compared with clearer conditions. This setup places the expected low squarely in the historical mid-May range for LaGuardia Airport observations, where climatological averages sit near 54–58°F but can vary several degrees with modest changes in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus most heavily because resolution occurs within hours, leaving little time for additional data shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日紐約市的最低溫度?
64-65°F 34%
62-63°F 19%
60-61°F 15%
66-67°F 13%
55°F或以下
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
28%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
華氏74度或更高
<1%
64-65°F 34%
62-63°F 19%
60-61°F 15%
66-67°F 13%
55°F或以下
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
28%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
華氏74度或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Diverging guidance between the GFS and ECMWF forecast models is driving the tightest market-implied odds toward the 62–65°F bins for New York City’s overnight low on May 17. Recent ensemble runs point to minimum temperatures near 62–65°F under partly cloudy skies and weak high pressure, which limits radiative cooling compared with clearer conditions. This setup places the expected low squarely in the historical mid-May range for LaGuardia Airport observations, where climatological averages sit near 54–58°F but can vary several degrees with modest changes in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus most heavily because resolution occurs within hours, leaving little time for additional data shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions