The spread of probabilities across multiple temperature bands for New York City’s lowest reading on May 16 reflects high forecast uncertainty typical of mid-May, when transitioning spring patterns produce variable overnight cooling. Current ensemble guidance from the National Weather Service centers the most likely range near 54–55 °F, driven by a weak high-pressure ridge that limits strong radiative cooling while allowing modest cloud cover and light southerly flow to moderate temperatures. Key variables include the exact timing of any passing shortwave trough, boundary-layer moisture that could enhance or suppress dew-point depression, and localized urban heat-island effects that may raise minimums by 1–2 °F relative to suburban stations. Later model runs expected overnight will clarify whether a sharper cold-air advection event materializes, potentially shifting odds toward the 52–53 °F tier.