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政治·主要

AZ-01共和黨初選獲勝者

icon for AZ-01共和黨初選獲勝者
政治·主要

AZ-01共和黨初選獲勝者

Jay Feely 72%

約瑟夫·查普利克 25.8%

傑森·杜伊 1.3%

吉娜·斯沃博達 1.1%

Polymarket

$405,695 交易量

Jay Feely 72%

約瑟夫·查普利克 25.8%

傑森·杜伊 1.3%

吉娜·斯沃博達 1.1%

Polymarket

$405,695 交易量

Jay Feely

$7,700 交易量

72%

約瑟夫·查普利克

$9,325 交易量

26%

傑森·杜伊

$3,092 交易量

1%

吉娜·斯沃博達

$4,909 交易量

1%

馬特·格雷斯

$48,804 交易量

1%

約翰·特羅博夫

$3,525 交易量

<1%

Derrick Gallego

$3,766 交易量

<1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$10,022 交易量

<1%

Todd Graham

$7,929 交易量

<1%

Kari Lake

$7,193 交易量

<1%

馬克·布爾諾維奇

$61,436 交易量

<1%

保羅·里夫斯

$222,573 交易量

<1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,589 交易量

<1%

Brandon Sowers

$10,833 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely maintains a commanding position in the Arizona 1st Congressional District Republican primary through President Trump's January endorsement and superior fundraising that exceeds $1.7 million, bolstering his visibility ahead of the July 21 contest. Recent exchanges in a May 5 televised debate and a May 7 social media clash over immigration comments have drawn scrutiny to Joseph Chaplik, the former state representative who resigned his seat in March to focus on the race. These developments, alongside Chaplik's lower cash reserves, align with the market's 71 percent implied probability for Feely versus 26 percent for Chaplik. The remaining field shows minimal movement, with most candidates holding under 1 percent as traders weigh the advantages of early institutional backing in this open seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$405,695
結束日期
2026-08-04
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely maintains a commanding position in the Arizona 1st Congressional District Republican primary through President Trump's January endorsement and superior fundraising that exceeds $1.7 million, bolstering his visibility ahead of the July 21 contest. Recent exchanges in a May 5 televised debate and a May 7 social media clash over immigration comments have drawn scrutiny to Joseph Chaplik, the former state representative who resigned his seat in March to focus on the race. These developments, alongside Chaplik's lower cash reserves, align with the market's 71 percent implied probability for Feely versus 26 percent for Chaplik. The remaining field shows minimal movement, with most candidates holding under 1 percent as traders weigh the advantages of early institutional backing in this open seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$405,695
結束日期
2026-08-04
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-01共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jay Feely" at 72%, followed by "約瑟夫·查普利克" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-01共和黨初選獲勝者" has generated $405.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-01共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-01共和黨初選獲勝者" is "Jay Feely" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "約瑟夫·查普利克" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-01共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.