Claude Fable 5.1-max leads trader sentiment at 39% implied probability following its September 1 launch as Anthropic’s latest Mythos-class large language model optimized for long-horizon coding, knowledge work, and research tasks. Official system cards and early benchmarks position it ahead of prior releases on metrics such as SWE-bench Verified, LiveBench, and composite quality indexes, with improvements in agentic workflows and reduced false positives over Fable 5. Older Opus variants, including Opus 5-high and Opus 4.6-high at 25–26%, trail due to the newer model’s demonstrated gains in capability and efficiency. “Other” at 27% reflects uncertainty around potential OpenAI or Google releases before the September 14 resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any fresh third-party evaluations or capability demonstrations that could shift the aggregated trader consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於claude-fable-5.1-max 50%
其他 29%
claude-opus-5-high 25%
claude-opus-4-6-high 24%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
claude-fable-5.1-max
39%
其他
29%
claude-opus-5-high
25%
claude-opus-4-6-high
24%
claude-opus-5-max
23%
claude-fable-5.1-max 50%
其他 29%
claude-opus-5-high 25%
claude-opus-4-6-high 24%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
claude-fable-5.1-max
$40 交易量
39%
其他
$0 交易量
29%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 交易量
25%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$0 交易量
24%
claude-opus-5-max
$0 交易量
23%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1-max leads trader sentiment at 39% implied probability following its September 1 launch as Anthropic’s latest Mythos-class large language model optimized for long-horizon coding, knowledge work, and research tasks. Official system cards and early benchmarks position it ahead of prior releases on metrics such as SWE-bench Verified, LiveBench, and composite quality indexes, with improvements in agentic workflows and reduced false positives over Fable 5. Older Opus variants, including Opus 5-high and Opus 4.6-high at 25–26%, trail due to the newer model’s demonstrated gains in capability and efficiency. “Other” at 27% reflects uncertainty around potential OpenAI or Google releases before the September 14 resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any fresh third-party evaluations or capability demonstrations that could shift the aggregated trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
交易量
$40結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1-max leads trader sentiment at 39% implied probability following its September 1 launch as Anthropic’s latest Mythos-class large language model optimized for long-horizon coding, knowledge work, and research tasks. Official system cards and early benchmarks position it ahead of prior releases on metrics such as SWE-bench Verified, LiveBench, and composite quality indexes, with improvements in agentic workflows and reduced false positives over Fable 5. Older Opus variants, including Opus 5-high and Opus 4.6-high at 25–26%, trail due to the newer model’s demonstrated gains in capability and efficiency. “Other” at 27% reflects uncertainty around potential OpenAI or Google releases before the September 14 resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any fresh third-party evaluations or capability demonstrations that could shift the aggregated trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$40結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETClaude Fable 5.1-max leads trader sentiment at 39% implied probability following its September 1 launch as Anthropic’s latest Mythos-class large language model optimized for long-horizon coding, knowledge work, and research tasks. Official system cards and early benchmarks position it ahead of prior releases on metrics such as SWE-bench Verified, LiveBench, and composite quality indexes, with improvements in agentic workflows and reduced false positives over Fable 5. Older Opus variants, including Opus 5-high and Opus 4.6-high at 25–26%, trail due to the newer model’s demonstrated gains in capability and efficiency. “Other” at 27% reflects uncertainty around potential OpenAI or Google releases before the September 14 resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any fresh third-party evaluations or capability demonstrations that could shift the aggregated trader consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions