Recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 positions Anthropic’s newest flagship as the frontrunner for coding and knowledge-work benchmarks, driving its 25% market share alongside Opus 5 variants that together hold roughly 44%. Traders weigh Fable 5.1’s higher ceiling on agentic and long-horizon tasks against Opus 5’s comparable scores at half the price, lighter safeguards, and stronger results on several Frontier-Bench and GDPval evaluations. The 31% “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.5, or undisclosed internal models could claim the top spot by September 21. Key swing factors include any post-launch benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next two weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於其他 32%
claude-fable-5.1-max 25%
claude-opus-5-high 23%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
其他
32%
claude-fable-5.1-max
25%
claude-opus-5-high
23%
claude-opus-5-max
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
5%
其他 32%
claude-fable-5.1-max 25%
claude-opus-5-high 23%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
其他
$80 交易量
32%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$96 交易量
25%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 交易量
23%
claude-opus-5-max
$0 交易量
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$97 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 positions Anthropic’s newest flagship as the frontrunner for coding and knowledge-work benchmarks, driving its 25% market share alongside Opus 5 variants that together hold roughly 44%. Traders weigh Fable 5.1’s higher ceiling on agentic and long-horizon tasks against Opus 5’s comparable scores at half the price, lighter safeguards, and stronger results on several Frontier-Bench and GDPval evaluations. The 31% “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.5, or undisclosed internal models could claim the top spot by September 21. Key swing factors include any post-launch benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
交易量
$272結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 positions Anthropic’s newest flagship as the frontrunner for coding and knowledge-work benchmarks, driving its 25% market share alongside Opus 5 variants that together hold roughly 44%. Traders weigh Fable 5.1’s higher ceiling on agentic and long-horizon tasks against Opus 5’s comparable scores at half the price, lighter safeguards, and stronger results on several Frontier-Bench and GDPval evaluations. The 31% “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.5, or undisclosed internal models could claim the top spot by September 21. Key swing factors include any post-launch benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$272結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETRecent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 positions Anthropic’s newest flagship as the frontrunner for coding and knowledge-work benchmarks, driving its 25% market share alongside Opus 5 variants that together hold roughly 44%. Traders weigh Fable 5.1’s higher ceiling on agentic and long-horizon tasks against Opus 5’s comparable scores at half the price, lighter safeguards, and stronger results on several Frontier-Bench and GDPval evaluations. The 31% “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.5, or undisclosed internal models could claim the top spot by September 21. Key swing factors include any post-launch benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next two weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions