Elevated Selic rates near 14.5–15 percent, even after the central bank’s recent 25-basis-point cut, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth near the 1.5–1.8 percent and 1.9–2.2 percent bands at 42.0 percent and 37.5 percent implied probabilities. Persistent IPCA inflation above the 3 percent target, combined with fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit programs, has lifted high-frequency indicators including March retail sales and April PMIs, while agricultural base effects and external demand provide partial offsets. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster around 1.7–1.9 percent, consistent with sequential moderation after 2025’s 2.3 percent expansion. The May 29 IBGE release remains the pivotal catalyst that could shift these closely matched probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 交易量
$21,009 交易量
2026-05-29
低於0.7%
2%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
6%
1.5%–1.8%
37%
1.9%–2.2%
38%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2.7%
3%
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 交易量
$21,009 交易量
2026-05-29
低於0.7%
$14,390 交易量
2%
0.7%–1.0%
$661 交易量
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$720 交易量
6%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,045 交易量
37%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,635 交易量
38%
2.3%–2.6%
$732 交易量
18%
≥2.7%
$1,827 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 14.5–15 percent, even after the central bank’s recent 25-basis-point cut, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth near the 1.5–1.8 percent and 1.9–2.2 percent bands at 42.0 percent and 37.5 percent implied probabilities. Persistent IPCA inflation above the 3 percent target, combined with fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit programs, has lifted high-frequency indicators including March retail sales and April PMIs, while agricultural base effects and external demand provide partial offsets. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster around 1.7–1.9 percent, consistent with sequential moderation after 2025’s 2.3 percent expansion. The May 29 IBGE release remains the pivotal catalyst that could shift these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
市場開放時間： Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
交易量
$21,009結束日期
2026-05-29市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 14.5–15 percent, even after the central bank’s recent 25-basis-point cut, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth near the 1.5–1.8 percent and 1.9–2.2 percent bands at 42.0 percent and 37.5 percent implied probabilities. Persistent IPCA inflation above the 3 percent target, combined with fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit programs, has lifted high-frequency indicators including March retail sales and April PMIs, while agricultural base effects and external demand provide partial offsets. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster around 1.7–1.9 percent, consistent with sequential moderation after 2025’s 2.3 percent expansion. The May 29 IBGE release remains the pivotal catalyst that could shift these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
交易量
$21,009結束日期
2026-05-29市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Selic rates near 14.5–15 percent, even after the central bank’s recent 25-basis-point cut, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth near the 1.5–1.8 percent and 1.9–2.2 percent bands at 42.0 percent and 37.5 percent implied probabilities. Persistent IPCA inflation above the 3 percent target, combined with fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit programs, has lifted high-frequency indicators including March retail sales and April PMIs, while agricultural base effects and external demand provide partial offsets. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster around 1.7–1.9 percent, consistent with sequential moderation after 2025’s 2.3 percent expansion. The May 29 IBGE release remains the pivotal catalyst that could shift these closely matched probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions