**Christopher Luxon, New Zealand’s Prime Minister and National Party leader, recently survived a second caucus confidence vote in four months, securing explicit backing from his MPs just 87 days before the November 7 general election.** The August 11–12 vote followed speculation sparked by weak polling, economic headwinds, and recent missteps, including a challenge linked to Defence Minister Chris Penk, who was subsequently removed from cabinet. Luxon stated afterward that the caucus was “united” and focused on the election campaign. With the next scheduled election only weeks after the September 30 cutoff and no fresh leadership moves reported since the vote, the 91.5% “No” probability reflects the high barrier to an immediate change. Historical precedent in New Zealand shows parties rarely replace leaders this close to voting day when the incumbent has just reaffirmed caucus support. Scheduled parliamentary sittings and coalition dynamics through September provide limited windows for disruption, reinforcing the current trader consensus that Luxon will remain in office through the end of the month.