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icon for Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?

Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?

icon for Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?

Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?

9% 機率
Polymarket

$63,942 交易量

9% 機率
Polymarket

$63,942 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Christopher Luxon, New Zealand’s Prime Minister and National Party leader, recently survived a second caucus confidence vote in four months, securing explicit backing from his MPs just 87 days before the November 7 general election.** The August 11–12 vote followed speculation sparked by weak polling, economic headwinds, and recent missteps, including a challenge linked to Defence Minister Chris Penk, who was subsequently removed from cabinet. Luxon stated afterward that the caucus was “united” and focused on the election campaign. With the next scheduled election only weeks after the September 30 cutoff and no fresh leadership moves reported since the vote, the 91.5% “No” probability reflects the high barrier to an immediate change. Historical precedent in New Zealand shows parties rarely replace leaders this close to voting day when the incumbent has just reaffirmed caucus support. Scheduled parliamentary sittings and coalition dynamics through September provide limited windows for disruption, reinforcing the current trader consensus that Luxon will remain in office through the end of the month.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$63,942
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Christopher Luxon, New Zealand’s Prime Minister and National Party leader, recently survived a second caucus confidence vote in four months, securing explicit backing from his MPs just 87 days before the November 7 general election.** The August 11–12 vote followed speculation sparked by weak polling, economic headwinds, and recent missteps, including a challenge linked to Defence Minister Chris Penk, who was subsequently removed from cabinet. Luxon stated afterward that the caucus was “united” and focused on the election campaign. With the next scheduled election only weeks after the September 30 cutoff and no fresh leadership moves reported since the vote, the 91.5% “No” probability reflects the high barrier to an immediate change. Historical precedent in New Zealand shows parties rarely replace leaders this close to voting day when the incumbent has just reaffirmed caucus support. Scheduled parliamentary sittings and coalition dynamics through September provide limited windows for disruption, reinforcing the current trader consensus that Luxon will remain in office through the end of the month.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$63,942
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "克里斯多福·勒克森在9月30日前下台?" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?" has generated $63.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?" is "克里斯多福·勒克森在9月30日前下台?" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Christopher Luxon在9月30日前出局?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.