Doug Ford’s explicit confirmation at the Ontario Progressive Conservative convention in late January 2026 that he intends to seek a fourth term has anchored trader expectations that he will remain party leader through the end of the year. With no active leadership challenges, public dissent from caucus members, or scheduled party votes on his position reported in recent months, the absence of any near-term succession triggers supports the current 87 percent implied probability that he stays in place. Ford’s continued dominance in internal party events and stable polling position for the PCs further reduce the likelihood of an abrupt departure by December 31, 2026, though any sudden health issue or major scandal could still alter that outlook.