**Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—nearly double the 4.0% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment tied to large nondefense aircraft bookings, though core orders excluding transportation rose a more modest 1.1%.** This volatility sets up mean-reversion expectations for the May reading due June 25, with Polymarket traders heavily favoring negative outcomes (<-4% at 33.6%, -4% to -2% at 24.5%). Key swing factors include normalization in aircraft and capital goods orders, softer manufacturing PMI trends, and persistent high interest rates weighing on business investment. The closely matched probabilities in negative ranges reflect uncertainty around whether the April strength was a one-off or signals broader resilience in factory demand.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於<-4% 33.6%
-4%– -2% 25%
-2%– 0% 10.1%
2%–4% 10%
$44,919 交易量
$44,919 交易量
2026-06-25
<-4%
34%
-4%– -2%
25%
-2%– 0%
10%
0%–2%
9%
2%–4%
10%
4%–6%
5%
6%-8%
1%
8%以上
5%
<-4% 33.6%
-4%– -2% 25%
-2%– 0% 10.1%
2%–4% 10%
$44,919 交易量
$44,919 交易量
2026-06-25
<-4%
$3,314 交易量
34%
-4%– -2%
$4,595 交易量
25%
-2%– 0%
$1,772 交易量
10%
0%–2%
$7,520 交易量
9%
2%–4%
$14,160 交易量
10%
4%–6%
$8,250 交易量
5%
6%-8%
$3,048 交易量
1%
8%以上
$2,259 交易量
5%
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—nearly double the 4.0% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment tied to large nondefense aircraft bookings, though core orders excluding transportation rose a more modest 1.1%.** This volatility sets up mean-reversion expectations for the May reading due June 25, with Polymarket traders heavily favoring negative outcomes (<-4% at 33.6%, -4% to -2% at 24.5%). Key swing factors include normalization in aircraft and capital goods orders, softer manufacturing PMI trends, and persistent high interest rates weighing on business investment. The closely matched probabilities in negative ranges reflect uncertainty around whether the April strength was a one-off or signals broader resilience in factory demand.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市場開放時間： Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$44,919結束日期
2026-06-25市場開放時間
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—nearly double the 4.0% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment tied to large nondefense aircraft bookings, though core orders excluding transportation rose a more modest 1.1%.** This volatility sets up mean-reversion expectations for the May reading due June 25, with Polymarket traders heavily favoring negative outcomes (<-4% at 33.6%, -4% to -2% at 24.5%). Key swing factors include normalization in aircraft and capital goods orders, softer manufacturing PMI trends, and persistent high interest rates weighing on business investment. The closely matched probabilities in negative ranges reflect uncertainty around whether the April strength was a one-off or signals broader resilience in factory demand.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
交易量
$44,919結束日期
2026-06-25市場開放時間
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—nearly double the 4.0% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment tied to large nondefense aircraft bookings, though core orders excluding transportation rose a more modest 1.1%.** This volatility sets up mean-reversion expectations for the May reading due June 25, with Polymarket traders heavily favoring negative outcomes (<-4% at 33.6%, -4% to -2% at 24.5%). Key swing factors include normalization in aircraft and capital goods orders, softer manufacturing PMI trends, and persistent high interest rates weighing on business investment. The closely matched probabilities in negative ranges reflect uncertainty around whether the April strength was a one-off or signals broader resilience in factory demand.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions