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icon for Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？
科技·AI

Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？

icon for Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？
科技·AI

Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$10,730 交易量

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$10,730 交易量

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Musk's terse "Dario is right" reply to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's September 12 essay endorsing selective pacing of frontier AI capabilities has not translated into any commitment to sign the July 2026 employee-led Pacing the Frontier statement. That open letter, backed by over 1,200 staff from labs including OpenAI and Anthropic, seeks U.S.-supported international tools for deliberate slowdowns in automated AI progress. xAI faces intense competitive pressure to maintain rapid development, and Musk has avoided binding pledges on evaluator access or capability restraint. With only nine days left until the September 30 deadline, the 97.7% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that no last-minute signature will occur absent unexpected regulatory pressure or a sudden strategic shift.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$10,730
結束日期
2026-10-01
市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Musk's terse "Dario is right" reply to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's September 12 essay endorsing selective pacing of frontier AI capabilities has not translated into any commitment to sign the July 2026 employee-led Pacing the Frontier statement. That open letter, backed by over 1,200 staff from labs including OpenAI and Anthropic, seeks U.S.-supported international tools for deliberate slowdowns in automated AI progress. xAI faces intense competitive pressure to maintain rapid development, and Musk has avoided binding pledges on evaluator access or capability restraint. With only nine days left until the September 30 deadline, the 97.7% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that no last-minute signature will occur absent unexpected regulatory pressure or a sudden strategic shift.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$10,730
結束日期
2026-10-01
市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃隆·馬斯克在9月30日前簽署《Pacing the Frontier》聲明？" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？" has generated $10.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？" is "埃隆·馬斯克在9月30日前簽署《Pacing the Frontier》聲明？" at just 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Elon Musk在9月30日之前簽署了Pacing the Frontier聲明？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.