Google’s upcoming I/O developer conference on May 19–20 has emerged as the dominant catalyst, with credible leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini iOS app model selector, Google AI Studio API metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks showing strong coding and reasoning results. These pre-release signals, combined with Google DeepMind’s accelerated cadence following the February Gemini 3.1 Pro launch and mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 trajectory and Anthropic’s latest models, have concentrated trader consensus around an imminent release. Historical patterns of model identifiers surfacing one to two weeks before official availability further reinforce the market-implied odds favoring May 19, though any last-minute delays or a direct jump to Gemini 3.5 remain plausible variables ahead of the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於May 19 89%
May 18 4.3%
May 20 3.7%
No release by May 31 1.5%
$321,972 交易量
$321,972 交易量
2026-05-31
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
89%
May 20
4%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 89%
May 18 4.3%
May 20 3.7%
No release by May 31 1.5%
$321,972 交易量
$321,972 交易量
2026-05-31
May 16
$7,921 交易量
<1%
May 17
$13,053 交易量
<1%
May 18
$38,237 交易量
4%
May 19
$117,581 交易量
89%
May 20
$18,251 交易量
4%
May 21
$10,762 交易量
1%
May 22
$14,208 交易量
1%
May 23
$4,089 交易量
<1%
May 24
$4,895 交易量
<1%
May 25
$3,317 交易量
<1%
May 26
$4,021 交易量
<1%
May 27
$4,488 交易量
<1%
May 28
$3,155 交易量
<1%
May 29
$2,395 交易量
<1%
May 30
$6,223 交易量
<1%
May 31
$5,574 交易量
<1%
No release by May 31
$22,233 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s upcoming I/O developer conference on May 19–20 has emerged as the dominant catalyst, with credible leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini iOS app model selector, Google AI Studio API metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks showing strong coding and reasoning results. These pre-release signals, combined with Google DeepMind’s accelerated cadence following the February Gemini 3.1 Pro launch and mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 trajectory and Anthropic’s latest models, have concentrated trader consensus around an imminent release. Historical patterns of model identifiers surfacing one to two weeks before official availability further reinforce the market-implied odds favoring May 19, though any last-minute delays or a direct jump to Gemini 3.5 remain plausible variables ahead of the event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
交易量
$321,972結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s upcoming I/O developer conference on May 19–20 has emerged as the dominant catalyst, with credible leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini iOS app model selector, Google AI Studio API metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks showing strong coding and reasoning results. These pre-release signals, combined with Google DeepMind’s accelerated cadence following the February Gemini 3.1 Pro launch and mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 trajectory and Anthropic’s latest models, have concentrated trader consensus around an imminent release. Historical patterns of model identifiers surfacing one to two weeks before official availability further reinforce the market-implied odds favoring May 19, though any last-minute delays or a direct jump to Gemini 3.5 remain plausible variables ahead of the event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$321,972結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s upcoming I/O developer conference on May 19–20 has emerged as the dominant catalyst, with credible leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini iOS app model selector, Google AI Studio API metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks showing strong coding and reasoning results. These pre-release signals, combined with Google DeepMind’s accelerated cadence following the February Gemini 3.1 Pro launch and mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 trajectory and Anthropic’s latest models, have concentrated trader consensus around an imminent release. Historical patterns of model identifiers surfacing one to two weeks before official availability further reinforce the market-implied odds favoring May 19, though any last-minute delays or a direct jump to Gemini 3.5 remain plausible variables ahead of the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions