Official forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather position London for a peak of 31–32°C on August 12 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds that favor strong solar heating with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Recent model runs show warm air advection maintaining temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms during an active heatwave period, with urban heat-island effects in central London likely pushing the daily maximum toward the upper end of the range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51% implied probability on 31°C, aligns closely with these guidance products and historical analogs for similar late-summer setups, while the modest 26.5% on 32°C accounts for residual uncertainty in afternoon timing and exact boundary-layer conditions ahead of any final observational data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日倫敦的最高溫度？
8月12日倫敦的最高溫度？
31°C 50%
32°C 26.1%
30°C 16%
33°C 3%
最新
$53,913 交易量
最新
$53,913 交易量
2026-08-12
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
16%
31°C
50%
32°C
26%
33°C
3%
34°C或更高
<1%
31°C 50%
32°C 26.1%
30°C 16%
33°C 3%
最新
$53,913 交易量
最新
$53,913 交易量
2026-08-12
24°C or below
$1,417 交易量
<1%
25°C
$755 交易量
<1%
26°C
$2,417 交易量
<1%
27°C
$3,588 交易量
<1%
28°C
$3,916 交易量
<1%
29°C
$6,401 交易量
1%
30°C
$7,438 交易量
16%
31°C
$10,500 交易量
50%
32°C
$6,106 交易量
26%
33°C
$5,806 交易量
3%
34°C或更高
$5,569 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather position London for a peak of 31–32°C on August 12 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds that favor strong solar heating with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Recent model runs show warm air advection maintaining temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms during an active heatwave period, with urban heat-island effects in central London likely pushing the daily maximum toward the upper end of the range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51% implied probability on 31°C, aligns closely with these guidance products and historical analogs for similar late-summer setups, while the modest 26.5% on 32°C accounts for residual uncertainty in afternoon timing and exact boundary-layer conditions ahead of any final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$53,913結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather position London for a peak of 31–32°C on August 12 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds that favor strong solar heating with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Recent model runs show warm air advection maintaining temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms during an active heatwave period, with urban heat-island effects in central London likely pushing the daily maximum toward the upper end of the range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51% implied probability on 31°C, aligns closely with these guidance products and historical analogs for similar late-summer setups, while the modest 26.5% on 32°C accounts for residual uncertainty in afternoon timing and exact boundary-layer conditions ahead of any final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$53,913結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETOfficial forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather position London for a peak of 31–32°C on August 12 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds that favor strong solar heating with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Recent model runs show warm air advection maintaining temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms during an active heatwave period, with urban heat-island effects in central London likely pushing the daily maximum toward the upper end of the range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51% implied probability on 31°C, aligns closely with these guidance products and historical analogs for similar late-summer setups, while the modest 26.5% on 32°C accounts for residual uncertainty in afternoon timing and exact boundary-layer conditions ahead of any final observational data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions