Southwest monsoon conditions across Luzon, including Metro Manila, are the dominant driver suppressing daytime heating and positioning 28°C as the market-implied favorite at 72% odds. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall—forecast by PAGASA with 90–100% rain probability—limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping maximum temperatures near or below the lower end of August climatology. Official outlooks show highs of 30–32°C under clearer regimes, yet current model consensus and recent station readings around 28–30°C reflect the monsoon’s cooling effect. Traders appear to weigh these near-term dynamics more heavily than seasonal averages, with only modest probability assigned to brief clearing that could allow 29–30°C peaks before the next rain band arrives.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月13日馬尼拉的最高溫度?
28°C 70.5%
29°C 18%
30°C 8%
31°C 5%
$24,807 交易量
$24,807 交易量
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
70%
29°C
18%
30°C
8%
31°C
5%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C或以上
<1%
28°C 70.5%
29°C 18%
30°C 8%
31°C 5%
$24,807 交易量
$24,807 交易量
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
70%
29°C
18%
30°C
8%
31°C
5%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C或以上
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Southwest monsoon conditions across Luzon, including Metro Manila, are the dominant driver suppressing daytime heating and positioning 28°C as the market-implied favorite at 72% odds. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall—forecast by PAGASA with 90–100% rain probability—limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping maximum temperatures near or below the lower end of August climatology. Official outlooks show highs of 30–32°C under clearer regimes, yet current model consensus and recent station readings around 28–30°C reflect the monsoon’s cooling effect. Traders appear to weigh these near-term dynamics more heavily than seasonal averages, with only modest probability assigned to brief clearing that could allow 29–30°C peaks before the next rain band arrives.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions