Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月21日華沙的最高溫度？
7月21日華沙的最高溫度？
18°C 41%
17°C 32%
19°C 17%
16°C 7.4%
$18,338 交易量
$18,338 交易量
2026-07-21
12°C或以下
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
7%
17°C
32%
18°C
41%
19°C
17%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C或更高
<1%
18°C 41%
17°C 32%
19°C 17%
16°C 7.4%
$18,338 交易量
$18,338 交易量
2026-07-21
12°C或以下
$208 交易量
<1%
13°C
$211 交易量
<1%
14°C
$694 交易量
<1%
15°C
$2,175 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,451 交易量
7%
17°C
$3,830 交易量
32%
18°C
$2,064 交易量
41%
19°C
$3,209 交易量
17%
20°C
$2,200 交易量
<1%
21°C
$1,020 交易量
<1%
22°C或更高
$1,348 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$18,338結束日期
2026-07-21市場開放時間
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$18,338結束日期
2026-07-21市場開放時間
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions