Recent model consensus points to a cool, mostly cloudy air mass over Warsaw on September 11 following frontal passage on the 10th, with highs likely settling near 17–19 °C. High pressure near 1020 hPa, light westerly flow, and extensive low-to-mid cloud cover are limiting daytime heating, while dew points in the 8–10 °C range keep surface energy modest. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with limited upside from clearer breaks or downside from additional showers. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 18 °C and 19 °C, reflecting the narrow forecast spread and the market’s recognition that final observed maximum will hinge on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月11日華沙的最高溫度？
9月11日華沙的最高溫度？
18°C 38%
19°C 35%
17°C 16%
16°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-11
14°C或以下
4%
15°C
4%
16°C
5%
17°C
16%
18°C
38%
19°C
35%
20°C
5%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C或以上
2%
18°C 38%
19°C 35%
17°C 16%
16°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-11
14°C或以下
$0 交易量
4%
15°C
$0 交易量
4%
16°C
$101 交易量
5%
17°C
$0 交易量
16%
18°C
$35 交易量
38%
19°C
$156 交易量
35%
20°C
$28 交易量
5%
21°C
$11 交易量
3%
22°C
$0 交易量
3%
23°C
$0 交易量
2%
24°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a cool, mostly cloudy air mass over Warsaw on September 11 following frontal passage on the 10th, with highs likely settling near 17–19 °C. High pressure near 1020 hPa, light westerly flow, and extensive low-to-mid cloud cover are limiting daytime heating, while dew points in the 8–10 °C range keep surface energy modest. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with limited upside from clearer breaks or downside from additional showers. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 18 °C and 19 °C, reflecting the narrow forecast spread and the market’s recognition that final observed maximum will hinge on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$331結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a cool, mostly cloudy air mass over Warsaw on September 11 following frontal passage on the 10th, with highs likely settling near 17–19 °C. High pressure near 1020 hPa, light westerly flow, and extensive low-to-mid cloud cover are limiting daytime heating, while dew points in the 8–10 °C range keep surface energy modest. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with limited upside from clearer breaks or downside from additional showers. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 18 °C and 19 °C, reflecting the narrow forecast spread and the market’s recognition that final observed maximum will hinge on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$331結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent model consensus points to a cool, mostly cloudy air mass over Warsaw on September 11 following frontal passage on the 10th, with highs likely settling near 17–19 °C. High pressure near 1020 hPa, light westerly flow, and extensive low-to-mid cloud cover are limiting daytime heating, while dew points in the 8–10 °C range keep surface energy modest. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with limited upside from clearer breaks or downside from additional showers. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 18 °C and 19 °C, reflecting the narrow forecast spread and the market’s recognition that final observed maximum will hinge on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions