Trump's approval ratings have averaged roughly 37-39% in August 2026 aggregates, with individual polls dipping to 33%, reflecting sustained pressure from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February and disrupted global oil flows, elevating gasoline prices and broader inflation concerns. Economic handling ratings remain deeply negative, particularly on cost-of-living issues, while support among independents and some Republican subgroups has eroded. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a collapsed memorandum of understanding on the Strait of Hormuz, have failed to resolve the stalemate, with most Americans expecting prolonged involvement. The November 2026 midterms add near-term scrutiny, as low presidential approval historically correlates with challenges for the president's party in congressional races. These factors shape trader assessments of whether ratings can rebound above recent lows before year-end.