**Republican House primary outcomes in 2026 have produced a modest number of incumbent defeats, anchoring trader consensus around the 4-6 bin.** Multiple sources confirm three to four Republican losses through mid-September, including Dan Crenshaw in Texas (lacking Trump backing amid redistricting and intraparty tensions), Thomas Massie in Kentucky (targeted by Trump-aligned spending after policy breaks on spending and foreign affairs), Andy Ogles in Tennessee (despite an endorsement, amid local controversies and spending), and Cory Mills in Florida (derailed by ethics and conduct issues). These align with broader patterns of Trump influence on challengers and occasional scandal-driven upsets, while most incumbents advanced amid limited overall primary volatility outside redistricting effects. With the primary calendar largely concluded, few remaining contests or procedural factors appear positioned to push the total higher. Scenarios that could still shift the count include any unresolved runoffs or late-counted races producing additional defeats, or if certain withdrawals after filing are treated differently under resolution rules.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$96,794 交易量
$96,794 交易量
4-6
97%
7-9
4%
$96,794 交易量
$96,794 交易量
4-6
$29,524 交易量
97%
7-9
$6,643 交易量
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Republican House primary outcomes in 2026 have produced a modest number of incumbent defeats, anchoring trader consensus around the 4-6 bin.** Multiple sources confirm three to four Republican losses through mid-September, including Dan Crenshaw in Texas (lacking Trump backing amid redistricting and intraparty tensions), Thomas Massie in Kentucky (targeted by Trump-aligned spending after policy breaks on spending and foreign affairs), Andy Ogles in Tennessee (despite an endorsement, amid local controversies and spending), and Cory Mills in Florida (derailed by ethics and conduct issues). These align with broader patterns of Trump influence on challengers and occasional scandal-driven upsets, while most incumbents advanced amid limited overall primary volatility outside redistricting effects. With the primary calendar largely concluded, few remaining contests or procedural factors appear positioned to push the total higher. Scenarios that could still shift the count include any unresolved runoffs or late-counted races producing additional defeats, or if certain withdrawals after filing are treated differently under resolution rules.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市場開放時間： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$96,794市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Republican House primary outcomes in 2026 have produced a modest number of incumbent defeats, anchoring trader consensus around the 4-6 bin.** Multiple sources confirm three to four Republican losses through mid-September, including Dan Crenshaw in Texas (lacking Trump backing amid redistricting and intraparty tensions), Thomas Massie in Kentucky (targeted by Trump-aligned spending after policy breaks on spending and foreign affairs), Andy Ogles in Tennessee (despite an endorsement, amid local controversies and spending), and Cory Mills in Florida (derailed by ethics and conduct issues). These align with broader patterns of Trump influence on challengers and occasional scandal-driven upsets, while most incumbents advanced amid limited overall primary volatility outside redistricting effects. With the primary calendar largely concluded, few remaining contests or procedural factors appear positioned to push the total higher. Scenarios that could still shift the count include any unresolved runoffs or late-counted races producing additional defeats, or if certain withdrawals after filing are treated differently under resolution rules.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$96,794市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET**Republican House primary outcomes in 2026 have produced a modest number of incumbent defeats, anchoring trader consensus around the 4-6 bin.** Multiple sources confirm three to four Republican losses through mid-September, including Dan Crenshaw in Texas (lacking Trump backing amid redistricting and intraparty tensions), Thomas Massie in Kentucky (targeted by Trump-aligned spending after policy breaks on spending and foreign affairs), Andy Ogles in Tennessee (despite an endorsement, amid local controversies and spending), and Cory Mills in Florida (derailed by ethics and conduct issues). These align with broader patterns of Trump influence on challengers and occasional scandal-driven upsets, while most incumbents advanced amid limited overall primary volatility outside redistricting effects. With the primary calendar largely concluded, few remaining contests or procedural factors appear positioned to push the total higher. Scenarios that could still shift the count include any unresolved runoffs or late-counted races producing additional defeats, or if certain withdrawals after filing are treated differently under resolution rules.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions