**Trader consensus strongly favors 11°C as the lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 3, 2026, at 93% implied probability.** This reflects consistent model outputs and observational data showing overnight lows settling near 11°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with persistent strong southeasterly winds. Current conditions feature a fresh to strong SE flow (20–30+ knots with gusts), promoting mixing and radiational cooling that stabilizes the minimum around 10–12°C. Multiple forecasts, including GFS-derived guidance and station observations near Cape Town International Airport, converge on a daily low of 11°C after daytime highs of 16–19°C. Historical September climatology for the region supports typical overnight minima in this range during spring transition periods with dry, windy conditions. The narrow spread of probabilities on adjacent outcomes (10°C at 7.5%, lower values under 2%) indicates limited model divergence or uncertainty in the final hours of the period. A realistic challenge would require either an unexpected further drop from enhanced clear-sky radiational cooling or a measurement discrepancy at the official reporting station; however, the current atmospheric setup and consensus across sources make significant deviation unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日開普敦最低溫度？
9月3日開普敦最低溫度？
11°C 99%
10°C 1%
7°C或以下 <1%
8°C <1%
$3,215 交易量
$3,215 交易量
2026-09-03
7°C或以下
否
8°C
否
9°C
否
10°C
否
11°C
是
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C或更高
否
11°C 99%
10°C 1%
7°C或以下 <1%
8°C <1%
$3,215 交易量
$3,215 交易量
2026-09-03
7°C或以下
$557 交易量
否
8°C
$651 交易量
否
9°C
$100 交易量
否
10°C
$403 交易量
否
11°C
$462 交易量
是
12°C
$663 交易量
否
13°C
$168 交易量
否
14°C
$75 交易量
否
15°C
$35 交易量
否
16°C
$45 交易量
否
17°C或更高
$55 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 11°C as the lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 3, 2026, at 93% implied probability.** This reflects consistent model outputs and observational data showing overnight lows settling near 11°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with persistent strong southeasterly winds.
Current conditions feature a fresh to strong SE flow (20–30+ knots with gusts), promoting mixing and radiational cooling that stabilizes the minimum around 10–12°C. Multiple forecasts, including GFS-derived guidance and station observations near Cape Town International Airport, converge on a daily low of 11°C after daytime highs of 16–19°C. Historical September climatology for the region supports typical overnight minima in this range during spring transition periods with dry, windy conditions.
The narrow spread of probabilities on adjacent outcomes (10°C at 7.5%, lower values under 2%) indicates limited model divergence or uncertainty in the final hours of the period. A realistic challenge would require either an unexpected further drop from enhanced clear-sky radiational cooling or a measurement discrepancy at the official reporting station; however, the current atmospheric setup and consensus across sources make significant deviation unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$3,215結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 11°C as the lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 3, 2026, at 93% implied probability.** This reflects consistent model outputs and observational data showing overnight lows settling near 11°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with persistent strong southeasterly winds.
Current conditions feature a fresh to strong SE flow (20–30+ knots with gusts), promoting mixing and radiational cooling that stabilizes the minimum around 10–12°C. Multiple forecasts, including GFS-derived guidance and station observations near Cape Town International Airport, converge on a daily low of 11°C after daytime highs of 16–19°C. Historical September climatology for the region supports typical overnight minima in this range during spring transition periods with dry, windy conditions.
The narrow spread of probabilities on adjacent outcomes (10°C at 7.5%, lower values under 2%) indicates limited model divergence or uncertainty in the final hours of the period. A realistic challenge would require either an unexpected further drop from enhanced clear-sky radiational cooling or a measurement discrepancy at the official reporting station; however, the current atmospheric setup and consensus across sources make significant deviation unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,215結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus strongly favors 11°C as the lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 3, 2026, at 93% implied probability.** This reflects consistent model outputs and observational data showing overnight lows settling near 11°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with persistent strong southeasterly winds. Current conditions feature a fresh to strong SE flow (20–30+ knots with gusts), promoting mixing and radiational cooling that stabilizes the minimum around 10–12°C. Multiple forecasts, including GFS-derived guidance and station observations near Cape Town International Airport, converge on a daily low of 11°C after daytime highs of 16–19°C. Historical September climatology for the region supports typical overnight minima in this range during spring transition periods with dry, windy conditions. The narrow spread of probabilities on adjacent outcomes (10°C at 7.5%, lower values under 2%) indicates limited model divergence or uncertainty in the final hours of the period. A realistic challenge would require either an unexpected further drop from enhanced clear-sky radiational cooling or a measurement discrepancy at the official reporting station; however, the current atmospheric setup and consensus across sources make significant deviation unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions