**Trader consensus strongly favors an 18°C low for Chengdu on September 10, driven by consistent official forecasts showing overnight minima near 17–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity.** Current observations from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological reports and international models, indicate daytime highs around 22°C with minimal diurnal range due to overcast skies and precipitation that limit radiative cooling. Recent developments, including ongoing light rain and northeast winds under 3–4 levels, have kept temperatures stable without sharp drops. Historical September baselines for the region typically feature lows in the mid-to-upper teens, aligning with the current pattern. No major model shifts or sudden clearing have altered this outlook, supporting the market-implied probability near 90% for 18°C while leaving lower thresholds like 15°C or below as lower-probability outliers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月10日成都最低溫度？
9月10日成都最低溫度？
18°C 89%
15°C 15%
14°C或以下 1.0%
16°C 1.0%
$1,201 交易量
$1,201 交易量
2026-09-10
14°C或以下
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
是
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C或以上
否
18°C 89%
15°C 15%
14°C或以下 1.0%
16°C 1.0%
$1,201 交易量
$1,201 交易量
2026-09-10
14°C或以下
$35 交易量
否
15°C
$17 交易量
否
16°C
$87 交易量
否
17°C
$129 交易量
否
18°C
$158 交易量
是
19°C
$229 交易量
否
20°C
$156 交易量
否
21°C
$55 交易量
否
22°C
$80 交易量
否
23°C
$170 交易量
否
24°C或以上
$85 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors an 18°C low for Chengdu on September 10, driven by consistent official forecasts showing overnight minima near 17–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity.**
Current observations from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological reports and international models, indicate daytime highs around 22°C with minimal diurnal range due to overcast skies and precipitation that limit radiative cooling. Recent developments, including ongoing light rain and northeast winds under 3–4 levels, have kept temperatures stable without sharp drops. Historical September baselines for the region typically feature lows in the mid-to-upper teens, aligning with the current pattern. No major model shifts or sudden clearing have altered this outlook, supporting the market-implied probability near 90% for 18°C while leaving lower thresholds like 15°C or below as lower-probability outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,201結束日期
2026-09-10市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors an 18°C low for Chengdu on September 10, driven by consistent official forecasts showing overnight minima near 17–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity.**
Current observations from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological reports and international models, indicate daytime highs around 22°C with minimal diurnal range due to overcast skies and precipitation that limit radiative cooling. Recent developments, including ongoing light rain and northeast winds under 3–4 levels, have kept temperatures stable without sharp drops. Historical September baselines for the region typically feature lows in the mid-to-upper teens, aligning with the current pattern. No major model shifts or sudden clearing have altered this outlook, supporting the market-implied probability near 90% for 18°C while leaving lower thresholds like 15°C or below as lower-probability outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,201結束日期
2026-09-10市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus strongly favors an 18°C low for Chengdu on September 10, driven by consistent official forecasts showing overnight minima near 17–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity.** Current observations from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological reports and international models, indicate daytime highs around 22°C with minimal diurnal range due to overcast skies and precipitation that limit radiative cooling. Recent developments, including ongoing light rain and northeast winds under 3–4 levels, have kept temperatures stable without sharp drops. Historical September baselines for the region typically feature lows in the mid-to-upper teens, aligning with the current pattern. No major model shifts or sudden clearing have altered this outlook, supporting the market-implied probability near 90% for 18°C while leaving lower thresholds like 15°C or below as lower-probability outliers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions