Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and models show an overnight low in the upper 60s to low 70s for New York City on August 28, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 70–73°F. Primary drivers include persistent humidity, light west-to-north winds, and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions and a slight chance of evening showers further moderate temperature drops by trapping heat and adding latent warmth. Close probabilities across the top three bins reflect model uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, with any clearer skies or weaker winds potentially allowing a dip toward 68–69°F while stronger mixing supports 74°F or higher. Historical August lows average near 67°F, but the current warmer air mass keeps extremes below 66°F unlikely.