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icon for Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
經濟艙·宏觀指標

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

icon for Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
經濟艙·宏觀指標

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

7月 30

7月 30

-0.5-0.0% 51%

0.5-1.0% 48%

1.5-2.0% 39%

1.0-1.5% 26%

Polymarket
最新

-0.5-0.0% 51%

0.5-1.0% 48%

1.5-2.0% 39%

1.0-1.5% 26%

Polymarket
最新

<-0.5%

$4 交易量

25%

-0.5-0.0%

$24 交易量

28%

0.0-0.5%

$11 交易量

45%

0.5-1.0%

$6 交易量

27%

1.0-1.5%

$2 交易量

26%

1.5-2.0%

$0 交易量

39%

2.0-2.5%

$0 交易量

11%

2.5%+

$0 交易量

11%

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico's economy, highlighted by the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter GDP contraction in Q1 2026—sharper than the 0.5% consensus decline—has tempered trader expectations for Q2, pushing the leading 0.0-0.5% range to a 45.5% implied probability. High-frequency indicators show softening industrial production, manufacturing exports, and domestic demand amid U.S. trade uncertainty and moderating remittances. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the Bank of Mexico, IMF, and others cluster around 1.5-1.8%, supporting competitive pricing for the 1.5-2.0% bin at 38.5%, while lower ranges reflect base effects and potential policy easing. Monthly releases through June remain key swing factors that could shift these closely matched probabilities.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$47
結束日期
2026-07-30
市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico's economy, highlighted by the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter GDP contraction in Q1 2026—sharper than the 0.5% consensus decline—has tempered trader expectations for Q2, pushing the leading 0.0-0.5% range to a 45.5% implied probability. High-frequency indicators show softening industrial production, manufacturing exports, and domestic demand amid U.S. trade uncertainty and moderating remittances. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the Bank of Mexico, IMF, and others cluster around 1.5-1.8%, supporting competitive pricing for the 1.5-2.0% bin at 38.5%, while lower ranges reflect base effects and potential policy easing. Monthly releases through June remain key swing factors that could shift these closely matched probabilities.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$47
結束日期
2026-07-30
市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0.0-0.5%" at 46%, followed by "1.5-2.0%" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?" is "0.0-0.5%" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.5-2.0%" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.