Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4 primary by a margin of roughly one percentage point over Rep. Haley Stevens after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier in the cycle. Traders have priced the sub-5% outcome near certainty because official tallies and multiple media projections confirmed the tight result in a contest defined by progressive versus moderate positioning, with El-Sayed drawing strong grassroots and endorsement support while Stevens benefited from established fundraising networks. Late polls had shown El-Sayed pulling ahead modestly in the final weeks. Potential adjustments to the certified margin remain limited to standard recount thresholds or minor tabulation disputes, though none have surfaced in the initial reporting window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於伊爾-薩耶德少於5% 99.4%
埃爾-賽義德 5–10% <1%
El-Sayed 25%+ <1%
埃爾-薩耶德20–25% <1%
$212,966 交易量
$212,966 交易量
2026-08-04
El-Sayed 25%+
<1%
埃爾-薩耶德20–25%
<1%
埃爾-賽義德15–20%
<1%
艾爾-賽義德10–15%
<1%
埃爾-賽義德 5–10%
<1%
伊爾-薩耶德少於5%
99%
史蒂文斯 <5%
<1%
史蒂文斯5–10%
<1%
史蒂文斯10–15%
<1%
Stevens 超過 15%
<1%
伊爾-薩耶德少於5% 99.4%
埃爾-賽義德 5–10% <1%
El-Sayed 25%+ <1%
埃爾-薩耶德20–25% <1%
$212,966 交易量
$212,966 交易量
2026-08-04
El-Sayed 25%+
$13,319 交易量
<1%
埃爾-薩耶德20–25%
$10,054 交易量
<1%
埃爾-賽義德15–20%
$24,923 交易量
<1%
艾爾-賽義德10–15%
$51,744 交易量
<1%
埃爾-賽義德 5–10%
$60,674 交易量
<1%
伊爾-薩耶德少於5%
$21,178 交易量
99%
史蒂文斯 <5%
$19,391 交易量
<1%
史蒂文斯5–10%
$6,731 交易量
<1%
史蒂文斯10–15%
$3,977 交易量
<1%
Stevens 超過 15%
$976 交易量
<1%
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4 primary by a margin of roughly one percentage point over Rep. Haley Stevens after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier in the cycle. Traders have priced the sub-5% outcome near certainty because official tallies and multiple media projections confirmed the tight result in a contest defined by progressive versus moderate positioning, with El-Sayed drawing strong grassroots and endorsement support while Stevens benefited from established fundraising networks. Late polls had shown El-Sayed pulling ahead modestly in the final weeks. Potential adjustments to the certified margin remain limited to standard recount thresholds or minor tabulation disputes, though none have surfaced in the initial reporting window.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市場開放時間： Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$212,966結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4 primary by a margin of roughly one percentage point over Rep. Haley Stevens after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier in the cycle. Traders have priced the sub-5% outcome near certainty because official tallies and multiple media projections confirmed the tight result in a contest defined by progressive versus moderate positioning, with El-Sayed drawing strong grassroots and endorsement support while Stevens benefited from established fundraising networks. Late polls had shown El-Sayed pulling ahead modestly in the final weeks. Potential adjustments to the certified margin remain limited to standard recount thresholds or minor tabulation disputes, though none have surfaced in the initial reporting window.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$212,966結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4 primary by a margin of roughly one percentage point over Rep. Haley Stevens after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier in the cycle. Traders have priced the sub-5% outcome near certainty because official tallies and multiple media projections confirmed the tight result in a contest defined by progressive versus moderate positioning, with El-Sayed drawing strong grassroots and endorsement support while Stevens benefited from established fundraising networks. Late polls had shown El-Sayed pulling ahead modestly in the final weeks. Potential adjustments to the certified margin remain limited to standard recount thresholds or minor tabulation disputes, though none have surfaced in the initial reporting window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions